Lisbon, Mar. 4, 2026 (Lusa) - The secretary-general of EPCOL said on Tuesday that the rise in oil prices following the conflict in Iran is likely to affect retail prices if the trend continues throughout the week.
Speaking to Lusa, António Comprido commented that crude oil, petrol, and diesel prices have seen “a significant increase” in recent days, in line with tensions in the Middle East, which could be reflected in a “significant rise” in fuel prices.
“At the moment, we only have yesterday's [Monday] and today's prices, which are closing, but we are indeed seeing a significant increase in prices, both for crude oil and refined products,” said the head of the entity that represents fuel and lubricant companies in Portugal.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the benchmark in Europe, has risen by more than 17% since Friday, after exceeding $85 today for the first time since the summer of 2024, although it subsequently moderated its rise to just over $83, with a recovery of more than 7% compared to Monday's close.
He explained that the price-setting mechanism in Portugal generally follows the average prices of the previous week, so if the upward trend continues, the impact should be reflected in retail prices.
“If this price increase continues throughout this week, and unfortunately, events in Iran do not bode well, this will inevitably have an impact on retail prices in Portugal,” he said, stressing that the effect will be felt “in Portugal and the rest of the world.”
Asked about the extent of the possible increase, António Comprido acknowledged that it was not possible to give concrete estimates at this stage, but acknowledged that the impact could be significant.
“It could be a significant increase. I looked at the prices of petrol and diesel, which have risen substantially, even more than crude oil, so we could see a significant impact here,” he said.
The secretary-general of EPCOL stressed, however, that it is still too early to quantify, since the calculation is based on the weekly average and the available data is preliminary. “The sample is not promising,” he summarised.
Regarding the possibility of higher transportation and freight costs, he acknowledged that this additional pressure is to be expected, even though the reference prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region already include a transportation component.
“It is natural that freight rates will also increase, because fuel for ships will also increase, and so all this is a bit of a cascade,” he explained, adding that the outlook “is not very positive” from the point of view of the economy and consumers, who are “almost certain to feel the impact of higher prices in their pockets.”
Asked about possible government measures to mitigate the rise, António Comprido recalled that, during the energy crisis associated with the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union authorised exceptional measures to mitigate the impact on member states.
"The tool always exists, which is to change the tax burden; there is no other alternative. Now, whether the government is in a position to do so or intends to do so, I have no indication whatsoever at this stage,“ he concluded.
On Monday, the Minister of Economy acknowledged that the increase in oil prices ”is not good news" and assured that the government will, if necessary, take the appropriate measures to keep the economy functioning.
Israel and the United States launched a military attack against Iran on Saturday to “eliminate the imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” and Tehran responded with missiles and drones against US bases in the region and Israeli targets.
SCR/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
