Luanda, Mar. 3, 2026 (Lusa) - Angolan economist Flávio Inocêncio said on Tuesday that oil prices could reach $100 per barrel in the coming weeks due to the war in Iran, leading to “significant growth” in Angola's oil revenues.
“The market has not yet internalised the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which will cause the price of oil to rise to close to $100 (€86) in the coming weeks if there is no ceasefire in the military offensive by Israel and the United States against Iran,” he told Lusa.
For Angola, whose economy is mainly supported by oil revenues, the expert stressed that a war in the Middle East would lead to “very large growth in oil revenues,” but noted that the increase “should be temporary.”
Flávio Inocêncio considered that no analyst predicts that this conflict will last for several months and acknowledged that “the most likely scenario is that the Americans will call for a ceasefire and, in that scenario, prices will then fall again.”
“It is also important to note that it is not only oil that has increased on international markets, but the natural gas index in Europe has also skyrocketed by more than 50%, and this could mean an increase in global inflation,” he stressed.
Flávio Inocêncio noted that, even so, Angola should have a month with revenues above the reference price in the 2026 General State Budget (OGE), based on an average price of $61 (€52) per barrel and a daily production of 1.05 million barrels of oil.
The economist said that the difference in the price of a barrel of oil for Angola during this period should be channelled into the social sector: “I have always argued that during this period there should be a focus on the social sector,” he noted.
The oil expert also predicted high inflation, with price increases particularly in food and fertilisers, insisting that everything depends on the duration of the war.
“The world economy cannot sustain prices of $100 per barrel of oil” for long, he said.
The price of Brent crude for May delivery reached $85.12 today, the highest since July 2024, up around 8%.
Oil prices continue to rise amid investor fears over the conflict in the Middle East. Markets fear that the conflict will drag on longer than expected, potentially causing supply disruptions due to limitations in the Strait of Hormuz.
Across the Atlantic, the equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, for April delivery, rose 7.36% to $76.47.
Israel and the United States launched a military attack against Iran on Saturday to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” and Tehran responded with missiles and drones against US bases in the region and Israeli targets.
DAS/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
