Lisbon, Sept. 3, 2025 (Lusa) - Alvaro Nobrega, a specialist in African issues, said on Wednesday that Guinea-Bissau is experiencing a permanent struggle for power due to the lack of a consensus base, which has led to permanent political and military instability.
Speaking to Lusa, the professor at the Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences in Portugal described the current political moment as "déjà vu" in a country with a "political life that is always agitated with the active intervention of the military".
The country has general and presidential elections scheduled for 23 November, almost two years after the dissolution of parliament and the end of the presidential term of office, which for the opposition expired on 27 February and for the President, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, ends this Thursday, 4th September.
"In the situation in which Guinea-Bissau still finds itself, people have to be legitimised by elections, the terms of office have already expired, there is a need to hold elections," argued the expert, in an analysis requested by Lusa.
Attentive to African affairs, Álvaro Nóbrega recalled that Guinea-Bissau's history "has alternated between moments when it seems that everything is coming together for peace, but suddenly everything turns into power struggles".
The events that have been reported - human rights violations, beatings, among others - "show that things are not going well", in the analyst's opinion.
The difference today compared to previous times, he argued, is that "the space for opinion is no longer so controlled by the state, radio stations can be closed down", but information circulates.
On 15 August, the Guinea-Bissau government expelled all Portuguese media outlets, specifically Lusa, RDP and RTP.
For Álvaro Nóbrega, Portugal is "an important player because it has a historical relationship with Guinea-Bissau" and "has to decide what position to take" in a scenario he describes as "complicated".
"From the point of view of those in power, it's important to have a good relationship with Portugal, but there are situations that jeopardise this," he said, stressing that the relationship between the two countries "is good", but "what harms the relationship between states is the relationship between political elites".
In a situation where Portugal "begins to feel more uncomfortable, it will always have to call on other actors to participate in this process", he said, but in his view, the international environment itself is not favourable, since "in the West itself, uncertainty reigns, the world is uncertain".
At regional level on the West African coast, "internal divisions are multiplying, with implications for organisations such as the African Union (AU) or the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)".
"From a regional point of view, there is no concerted action to strengthen democratic institutions. Within the internal framework of Guinea-Bissau, the very situation of its multiple struggles, fractionalisations, is weakening the Guinea-Bissau actors themselves, who are more dependent on regional and international actors," he pointed out.
Actors such as Portugal or France have limited influence, in the opinion of the analyst, who points to other current power blocs such as China, Russia or the Middle East.
"If there is no external capacity, it's the internal will that counts, and those who dominate this internal will are the military, who can decide in the last instance," he said.
On this perpetual stage, "those in power will continue to be in power, those who aren't will try to counteract it," he noted.
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