Luanda, Sept. 3, 2025 (Lusa) - Oil production in Angola has a "very negative" outlook until the end of 2032, says a report on the sector, which concludes that stabilisation of oil production will only last with the discovery of new reserves.
According to the Economic Report for the 1st Quarter of 2025, drawn up by the Centre for Economic Research at the Lusíada University of Angola (CINVESTEC) and consulted on Wednesday by Lusa, oil production continues to have a very negative outlook for the next seven years.
"Our oil production continues to have a very negative outlook until the end of the next legislature (2032). The use of additional production (investment in declining wells and to extend extraction in marginal wells) requires less favourable contracts," the research states.
For CINVESTEC, “an added impetus” to additional oil production is essential, "not least because the production that counts for the new contracts only begins once the extraction provided for in the normal contracts has been completed".
The report notes that Angola "must realise that we are truly in the post-oil era".
According to the study, in volume, the oil sector index in the first three months of 2025 is around 3% below the first quarter of 2022, and in the last four quarters the sector has decreased by 4.4% in volume and 19.5% in deflated value, and income by volume has decreased by 15.5%.
During this period, oil exports (oil, gas and derivatives) fell by 14.4%, according to CINVESTEC, noting that the weight of exports represented 27% in volume and 29% in terms of value.
Angola, with a daily production of one million barrels of oil, is the second largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria, and this resource is the country's main source of revenue.
Angola exported 83.6 million barrels of crude oil in the second quarter of 2025 and earned US$5.6 billion, a reduction of 13.6% on the same quarter last year, the authorities said.
According to oil and gas production figures for the second quarter of 2025, made public in July by the Angolan Ministry of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas, the volume of oil exported represents a decrease of 3.82% compared to the previous quarter, but is still worth around €4.7 billion.
The gross value of exports in the second quarter fell by 12.5% compared to the previous quarter and in year-on-year terms the reduction was 29.81%.
The survey that presents the evolution of the main national economic aggregates, in the light of data published by the national statistics institute (INE), the National Bank of Angola and the Ministry of Finance, states that in relation to the extractive industry, production in this period “grew 51.6% in volume, but in deflated value (real value) it fell 35.8%”.
Diamond exports "grew by 75.6% in volume (carats), but prices fell by 45.6%, resulting in a total reduction in export earnings of 4.5%," CINVESTEC also points out.
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