Lisbon, Dec. 19, 2025 (Lusa) - The number of families has been increasing faster than the supply of housing since 2011, becoming one of the main reasons for the housing crisis in Portugal, according to a study by the Bank of Portugal released on Friday.
Between 2011 and 2021, the number of families exceeded the supply of homes by an average of 4,000 per year, and between 2021 and 2024, it exceeded the supply of housing by an average of 14,000 per year, with the growth in households and immigration explaining the trend.
The last 15 years show a profound reversal of the trend recorded in the previous three decades, when the increase in housing, of more than 80,000 per year, was much higher than the change in the number of families, of around 40,000 per year.
The study on the housing market in Portugal, published in the central bank's December economic bulletin, assesses the impact and pressures of demographics on the supply and demand for housing in Portugal in the four decades between 1981 and 2021, based on census information, and between 2021 and 2024, based on new information available.
Over the last 45 years, the number of families in Portugal has increased by an average of around 35,000 per year, with the highest growth taking place between 1991 and 2011 (47,000 per year on average) and between 2021 and 2024 (36,000 per year on average).
This growth was accompanied by a reduction in family size. While in 1981 families had an average of 3.4 members, between 2011 and 2021 this number fell to 2.5.
The Bank of Portugal study concludes that this decrease "reflects the increase in average life expectancy, the reduction in fertility and the lower number of family unions", with the elderly making the greatest contribution to the weight of small families.
However, net migration has been the main cause of the increase in the number of families since 2017. In the period 2021-2024, this translated into an average of 127,000 individuals per year, compared to 10,000 per year in the period 1981-2021.
Assuming that the average size of immigrant families is the same as that of resident families in 2021, the central bank concludes that the net inflow of individuals explains an average annual increase in the number of families of 52,000 in the latter period 2021-2024.
At the regional level, the number of families has grown on the coast and decreased in the interior of the country, with 67% of local authorities recording an increase in the most recent period, mainly due to net migration, "which offset the trend of family reduction due to negative natural growth in many areas".
Odemira stands out among the areas with the highest percentage increases in the number of families, and also with the highest demand for housing, followed by the West and Tagus Valley, Centre, Algarve and Setúbal Peninsula regions.
The largest percentage reduction in families was in the interior of the North and in the Alentejo regions.
Conversely, it can be seen that the supply of housing "has increased at a much slower pace since 2011" than in the previous two decades, with the Bank of Portugal analysis showing that it went from an average of 82,000 in the period 1981-2011 to 11,000 in 2011-2021 and 22,000 in 2021-2024.
The study also highlights that the number of second homes and vacant dwellings has been falling in order to accommodate the increase in demand for habitual residences that has not been met by the increase in the supply of new dwellings, although "most regions continue to have a relatively high number of vacant homes", exceeding 4% of the total.
The number of dwellings that remain vacant is explained by a variety of factors, namely because they are "old" properties and in need of “improvements”, or because they have "several owners" as a result of inheritance, making it difficult to place them on the market.
Other factors cited include "legal and fiscal insecurity and instability" in the rental market, the slowness of evictions, "relatively low" taxation on property ownership, based on "property values that are in many cases outdated", and the "historically high" return on investment in housing, which contributes to properties remaining unused.
The economic bulletin study also notes that "the social housing supply is very small in Portugal (around 2%), in contrast to other European countries" such as the Netherlands or Austria, "where it reaches a figure that exceeds 20%".
The Bank of Portugal also looked at the construction sector, considering that "the increase in supply through new construction is also a relevant factor in mitigating existing market pressures".
"In the coming years, the construction of new homes should continue to increase," the analysis concluded, with this acceleration depending on "increased production capacity and productivity, as well as the stability and predictability of the various legal factors affecting the sector".
In presenting the economic bulletin, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal, Álvaro Santos Pereira, pointed out that, in the housing market, demand "is well above supply" and there has been no response, particularly in the country's coastal regions.
Santos Pereira pointed out that supply "should be the priority" when addressing the housing crisis, stressing that "much of the constraint on supply is at the local authority level".
"Licensing is taking too long," he argued, arguing that local authorities should "publish average licensing times".
In this analysis, the governor considered that it is necessary to understand what needs to be done to increase the pace of construction, adding that it is also "important to invest more in construction training and attract skilled workers, because there is a very large labour shortage" in this sector.
CT/AYLS // AYLS
Lusa
