Lisbon, Oct. 7, 2026 (Lusa) - The Portuguese Association of Electric Vehicle Users (UVE) considers it premature to predict the impact of electrification on road revenue and believes that the regulator's projections for 2030 are unrealistic and should be viewed with caution.
At issue is the strategic study «Financing the Road Network», presented on 29 September by the Mobility and Transport Authority (AMT), which analyses the current and future challenges associated with financing the Portuguese road infrastructure and sets out different scenarios for the evolution of the respective financing model.
In a statement released on Wednesday, the UVE considers this study to be a «significant contribution to a discussion that will be inevitable», but believes that «this is not the right time to place at the centre of the debate the need to offset a potential reduction in revenue from fuel through electric vehicles».
The association points out that «Portugal is going through a period of particular instability and uncertainty in the energy sector».
In this context, it considers that «public policies should focus, first and foremost, on accelerating the energy transition in transport, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and increasing the country's energy resilience».
Arguing that the electrification of road transport is one of the key tools for achieving this objective, it warns that «the energy transition must not be held back by the prospect of new forms of taxation».
Given this scenario, the UVE therefore considers that «it is contradictory, at this stage, to send signals that might foreshadow a withdrawal of incentives for electric transport or create uncertainty amongst citizens and businesses that are considering the transition to low- or zero-emission vehicles».
According to the association's data, the current penetration of electric vehicles in the Portuguese vehicle fleet remains low, accounting for just over 3% of the total number of vehicles on the road by the end of 2025.
Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of electric vehicles currently on the road are light passenger vehicles.
«We are therefore still in the early stages of a transformation that will necessarily be gradual. A 20% or 30% share of electric vehicles in the vehicle fleet by as early as 2030, as presented by AMT in its study, should be viewed as an extreme stress scenario rather than a reasonable basis for projecting the evolution of tax revenues,» it points out.
According to the association's calculations, «in a fleet of around 6.2 million light passenger vehicles, even assuming that 100% of new registrations were fully electric vehicles, the annual renewal of the fleet would account for only around 5% of its total».
For the UVE, «achieving a share of 20% to 30% of electric vehicles in the road fleet in just four years would therefore require an extraordinarily high rate of replacement, unprecedented in the Portuguese context».
The AMT study also points to a future evolution of the road network's funding model, including greater tax neutrality with regard to the energy source used and, as a first step, the introduction of a kilometre-based charge for heavy goods and commercial vehicles.
The UVE acknowledges that the gradual electrification of road transport «will inevitably force a rethink of the current road infrastructure funding model, which is currently heavily reliant on fuel taxation».
Whilst acknowledging that this discussion is necessary, it believes that «it must take place at the appropriate time and be based on data that reflects the actual reality of the energy transition in Portugal».
SCR/AYLS // AYLS
Lusa
