Maputo, Oct. 2, 2026 (Lusa) - Confidence among Mozambican businesses rebounded for the first time in almost two years in the third quarter, ending a seven-quarter decline, according to figures from the National Statistics Institute (INE).
The Economic Climate Indicator for the third quarter, which measures business confidence, rose from 87.4 points in the second quarter to 87.8 points between 1 July and 30 September this year, according to the INE report.
This result reverses a downward trend that began after the second quarter of 2024 and marks the first improvement in the indicator since then.
According to the report, the recovery was «influenced by an improvement in employment prospects and demand», two of the indicator's main components.
Despite the rise, the Economic Climate Indicator remains below the series' historical average of 98.8 points.
The indicator stood at 89.8 points in the third quarter of 2025, before falling to 88.7 points in the fourth quarter of that year, to 87.8 points in the first quarter of 2026, and to 87.4 points in the second quarter, before the slight recovery now observed.
The report notes that the economic climate reflected differing trends across the main sectors of activity.
In the services sector, the confidence indicator rose from 100.6 to 101.7 points, consolidating the recovery that began in the previous quarter and remaining above the sector's historical average.
In industry, meanwhile, business confidence recovered slightly, rising from 89.8 to 90.0 points, following two consecutive quarters of decline.
In the retail sector, despite an improvement from 71.0 to 72.3 points, confidence remains the lowest in the economy and well below the historical average.
According to INE, the recovery in the economic climate was accompanied by a further rise in demand expectations.
«The demand expectations indicator has shown gradual improvements for the fourth consecutive quarter,» the report states.
The corresponding balance rose from 91.6 to 92.4 points, driven by positive assessments from firms in the services sector and by the recovery observed in industry and trade.
Employment prospects also improved in the third quarter, with the corresponding indicator rising from 81.1 to 82.9 points, continuing the recovery trend observed since the start of the year, although it remains below the historical average of 98.6 points.
«This favourable outlook for future employment was influenced by the positive assessment of the indicator in the trade and services sectors,» the document also notes.
The outlook for prices of goods and services also improved, with the indicator rising from 102.6 to 104.7 points, marking the third consecutive quarter of recovery and remaining above the historical average for the series.
At the same time, obstacles to business activity have eased, with the proportion of firms reporting that they faced some constraints falling from 49.8% in the second quarter to 44.7% between July and September – a reduction of 5.1 percentage points.
Nevertheless, almost half of all firms still face difficulties carrying out their activities, with manufacturing the most affected sector, where around 55% of firms reported constraints.
The main obstacles that firms highlighted include market difficulties, insufficient demand, limited access to finance, operating costs and constraints in the business environment.
These figures emerge as the Mozambican economy continues to recover from the effects of the social instability experienced in late 2024, recurring climatic impacts, and the constraints faced by various productive sectors.
PVJ/ADB // ADB.
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