Lisbon, Sept. 21, 2026 (Lusa) - Fifteen years after seeking international financial assistance, Portugal has gone from being one of the countries hardest hit by the eurozone debt crisis to receiving an ‘A+' rating from Fitch, demonstrating a recovery in market confidence.
The country, which in 2011 had to resort to a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, now has more balanced public finances and a public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward trajectory. This development has improved financing conditions and strengthened its external credibility.
On 4 September, Fitch upgraded Portugal's rating from ‘A' to ‘A+', with a stable outlook.
The Ministry of Finance highlighted, in a statement, that if one considers «the upgrades by S&P (one in February 2025 from A- to A and another in August 2025 from A to A+), this is now the fourth rating revision the country has seen in the last two years».
The upgrade of Portugal's sovereign credit rating forms part of a broader transformation of the southern European economies that were at the heart of the euro crisis and which now, in some cases, are borrowing on more favourable terms than countries traditionally considered more sound.
Portugal thus presents a radically different position to investors than it did during the bailout.
Economist Ricardo Ferraz told Lusa: «Since the Troika's arrival in Portugal and from the time of Pedro Passos Coelho's government, through António Costa's and now, more recently, Luís Montenegro's, what we have seen is a great deal of concern – and rightly so – regarding the issue of balanced public finances».
«Since the Troika's arrival, when it inherited part of a very significant deficit – over 11% of GDP – that deficit has been gradually reduced until we finally managed to achieve a surplus as early as 2019. We then slipped back into a deficit when the pandemic struck, but after the pandemic we returned to recording surpluses», so, excluding this temporary factor, «there is clearly a trend towards improvement in the balance», he notes.
This trend «is also reflected in public debt, which has been falling in terms of its ratio», meaning that Portugal is now «in a much more comfortable position than it was a few years ago», he emphasised.
«The path we have been following to build our credibility is very important and certainly has an impact on the debt markets and on investors' perceptions of the risk associated with Portuguese debt,» he said, acknowledging that there is currently an unfavourable economic climate affecting all countries.
However, «if Portugal had not taken this path and were not to continue prioritising the sustainability of public finances, we would certainly be in a particularly difficult situation right now, with interest rates higher than Spain's», he concluded.
The economist recalls that, in 2010, the Portuguese minister of finance stated that if interest rates on debt reached 7%, Portugal would, at that time, be forced to seek external aid; therefore, «in an adverse external environment in which countries' interest rates on debt are rising, it is essential that the government continues to prioritise keeping public accounts in balance».
«We are all aware of the immense sacrifices the Portuguese people had to make when Portugal, in adverse circumstances, allowed its public finances to spiral out of control,» he emphasised.
António Mendonça, a professor at the Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão (ISEG), tells Spanish news agency, Efe that the international perception of Portugal has improved significantly over the last decade, thanks to the reduction in the deficit and public debt, improvement in external accounts, greater soundness of the financial system and the ability to maintain positive growth in an adverse environment.
For Mendonça, Fitch's rating upgrade is «a significant sign of confidence» which could immediately facilitate financing for the state, businesses and households, as well as bolstering the country's international credibility.
However, he recommends avoiding «excessively triumphalist» interpretations, as rating agencies tend to assess future prospects based on cyclical conditions, paying less attention to structural vulnerabilities and the creation of dependencies.
José Reis, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Coimbra, also recognises the importance of Fitch's decision, but warns that it reflects, above all, «the short-term view of the markets» and does not address the structural weaknesses of the Portuguese economy.
The Bank of Portugal also warns in an analysis published as part of the Economic Bulletin that the ratio of public debt to GDP «will tend to rise from the start of the next decade».
According to the central bank's projections, the ratio of public debt to GDP in Portugal will cease to decline at the start of the next decade, based on a baseline scenario that incorporates the costs associated with an ageing population but does not take into account policy measures beyond those already factored into the projections.
«The budget balance (that is, the difference between public revenue and expenditure) is forecast to deteriorate gradually, reaching a deficit of 2.7% of GDP in 2035», the analysis states, whilst the public debt ratio «is expected to reach 75% of GDP in 2033, before beginning an upward trajectory, albeit a moderate one over the forecast horizon».
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