ZAGREB, 9 Feb  (Hina) - After several years of declining numbers of live births, Croatia recorded a slight increase in 2025 compared with the previous year, however, demographers warn that this is a modest shift that does not alter the long-term unfavourable demographic trend.

According to provisional data from the national statistical office (DZS), 31,858 live births were recorded in 2024, while 32,385 were registered in 2025, an increase of 527 births. This ended a steady decline that had culminated in 2024, which saw the lowest number of live births in the past decade.

Positive developments

The Minister for Demography and Immigration, Ivan Šipić, links the increase in live births to the effects of demographic measures, which the ministry interprets as a sign that positive developments are emerging after years of decline.

Minister Šipić also highlights a strong increase in the use of parental and paternity leave, which he associates with the new Act on Maternity and Parental Benefits and higher financial allowances, emphasising that such measures make it easier for parents to decide to expand their families.

Despite the increase, demographers stress that this does not represent a demographic turnaround, but merely a possible reduction in the intensity of the negative trend.

Demographer Ivo Turk from the Ivo Pilar Institute of Social Sciences points out that Croatia has recorded a continuous natural population decrease since the early 1990s.

A reduction in the intensity of the negative trend

"Preliminary data for 2025 are no exception. This is merely a reduction in the intensity of the negative trend, not a reversal. Croatia continues to record a significant natural population decline," Turk said.

He adds that the statistical significance of such an increase is currently limited.

"It may be the result of natural fluctuations, or possibly the beginning of a reduction in the long-standing negative trend. Only time will tell," he notes.

A similar interpretation is offered by demographer Ivan Čipin, a professor at the Faculty of Economics and Business in Zagreb, who warns of a strong negative demographic momentum.

According to him, annual changes of a few hundred births in a population the size of Croatia are not unusual. This represents a shift of just one to two per cent, which can also be explained by normal annual variations, without any real change in the long-term trend.

The increase is encouraging, but…

"An increase of around 500 births is encouraging, but I would not yet interpret it as a reversal of the long-term trend. Croatia is strongly affected by the fact that smaller cohorts of women are entering reproductive age," Čipin says.

Monthly data show that the seasonal pattern remains unchanged.

In 2024, the highest number of live births was recorded in October (2,926), and the lowest in June (2,384). In 2025, the peak occurred in September (3,087), while February was the weakest month, with 2,233 live births.

Čipin notes that part of the increase may be the result of the so-called tempo effect, meaning the realisation of previously postponed parenthood plans.

"In periods of uncertainty, couples often delay having children, and when circumstances stabilise somewhat, some of those births take place later. In that case, the timing of births changes, but not necessarily the final number of children per woman," he explains.

Stable and long-term measures

When discussing government demographic measures, both demographers agree that their impact is difficult to assess on the basis of just one year.

Turk says that such measures can have a positive effect, but only if the more favourable trend continues.

Čipin adds that financial incentives can help couples more easily realise planned births, but rarely lead to a long-term increase in fertility.

According to Eurostat projections, the number of births in Croatia could fall to around 25,000 per year by the middle of the century, while the number of deaths is expected to remain at around 50,000, meaning that the natural population decline will remain pronounced. In this context, demographers stress that it is more realistic to speak of mitigating the decline rather than returning to fertility levels seen in previous decades.