Lisbon, Nov. 13, 2025 (Lusa) - Researcher Peter Bofin has argued that there has been some progress in the Mozambique state response to Islamic State, but challenges remain that will be faced in the coming years, such as gas exploration in Cabo Delgado.
The researcher on the presence of Islamic State in Mozambique (EIM) and member of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) explained on Wednesday - during the seminar "Combating the threat of Islamic State in Africa: state responses and the way forward" - that "in the last two years, there has finally been an established concentration of committed state forces in the Cabo Delgado region" in the north of the country.
For Bofin, the first three years of the conflict - 2017 to 2020 - were marked "by the inaction of the Mozambican state".
In turn, in 2021, "leadership of the response was transferred to the military - the Mozambique armed forces (FADM) - which probably helped facilitate the game-changing intervention by forces from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community [SADC], which arrived later that year, and significantly reduced the threat posed by the Islamic insurgency," the researcher argued.
According to the expert, the FADM currently still leads operations on the ground.
"Despite the withdrawal of the SADC, Tanzania still maintains a bilateral force on the Mozambican side of the border, as well as on the Rwandan side of the border, focused mainly on border security and ensuring that the conflict does not spread to the southern regions of Tanzania," he contextualised.
Rwanda also has up to 5,000 troops in the region, "mostly from the Rwandan Defence Forces, but also from the Rwandan National Police," he added.
Rwanda was a relatively popular force among the people in Cabo Delgado province. It had been effective in combating the Islamic State and "had a clear civil-military cooperation strategy that helped sustain good relations with communities and probably contributed to good intelligence gathering. But that is changing," he contextualised.
"Last year, we documented how Rwandan forces are reluctant to respond to Islamic State attacks on civilians in some areas, even in areas where they have established bases and outposts. This continues and is affecting how people view the force. We see the effects of this in the city of Mocímboa da Praia," he stressed.
In terms of internal defence, the researcher stressed that there has been "some progress," with the government successfully incorporating community defence militias that emerged in the early years of the conflict into the security forces.
"Now known as the local force, these forces play a valuable role in some communities, given their local knowledge," he said.
However, the forces are not active in all communities and emerged from structures of the ruling party (FRELIMO), which makes their action less active "in areas where the insurgency is strongest and where FRELIMO is very weak."
The researcher also pointed out that President Daniel Chapo, in the first months of his term of office, advocated for the need for fundamental reform of the security sector and the need to address corruption in the procurement of goods and services.
"Corruption in appointments has hampered the state's response to the insurgency, including the sale of operational information to insurgents. It is remarkable that he [Chapo] actually mentioned this," Bofin stressed.
On the other hand, Chapo even raised the prospect of dialogue with the insurgents at the end of September, the analyst recalled.
"Now, while dialogue with Islamic State groups is not unprecedented - we have seen good examples of this in Nigeria at the local level - the proposal for it by a head of state may be unprecedented. How he would approach such dialogue is an open question," he stressed.
In his opinion, this approach "will certainly be very informal, but it means that it could be over the next four to five years - during which the Liquefied Natural Gas project will continue to be under construction," he concluded.
The gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado has been the target of extremist attacks for eight years, with the first attack recorded on 5 October 2017 in the region of Mocímboa da Praia.
According to the latest ACLED report, of the 2,236 violent events recorded since October 2017, when the armed insurgency began in Cabo Delgado, a total of 2,061 involved extremists associated with the Islamic State.
These attacks have caused 6,659 deaths in just over eight years, according to the new report, including the 18 victims reported in less than two weeks in October.
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