Lisbon, Oct. 21, 2025 (Lusa) - The Portuguese Government considers it essential that traffic forecasts for the new Lisbon airport be revised, especially between 2035 and 2045, to ensure that the infrastructure is realistically sized and can meet future demand.
The recommendation is contained in a letter sent to Portugal's airports managing group, ANA, in which the executive analyses the Consultation Report on the new Lisbon airport, which brought together contributions from more than 100 entities, including airlines, ground handling companies, municipal councils, the National Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC) and air traffic controller, NAV Portugal.
"We cannot fail to note that the report highlights a misalignment between the expectations of stakeholders and the traffic projections presented by the concessionaire [of national airports], particularly between 2035 and 2045," reads the letter sent to ANA Aeroportos by the ministers of finance and infrastructure, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento and Miguel Pinto Luz.
The ministers consider it essential that the design of the new Luís de Camões airport, in Campo de Tiro de Alcochete, on the south bank of the River Tagus, and the master plan for the opening phase are based on realistic traffic forecasts. Only then will it be possible to ensure that the infrastructure is properly sized to meet demand and accommodate any positive deviations.
"Therefore, the grantor [the State] believes that the traffic forecast and its assumptions should be reviewed as soon as possible," they emphasise.
In the executive summary of the report, published on Monday on the website of the Institute for Mobility and Transport (IMT), ANA points out that, in general, stakeholders do not reject the growth premise presented. However, no one presented an alternative forecast supported by a study.
In the initial report, released earlier this year, the airport manager estimated an increase to around 52 million passengers in 2060 at the new airport, compared to the current 35 million passengers at Humberto Delgado in Lisbon.
After analysing the report, the government considered most of the contributions received to be relevant, expressing reservations only on some proposals to change the "minimum specifications".
Of the nine proposals presented by ANA, seven met with broad consensus among stakeholders, including the length of the runways, the distance between them and the number of contact parking positions.
Two proposals will still undergo further technical evaluation. One of these refers to the reduction of fuel autonomy at the airport facilities from five to three days. The other proposes dispensing with the construction of two catering buildings, one of which would be the direct responsibility of the airport management.
The executive summary also reveals stakeholders' concerns about uncertainties in the planning and timing of access to the new airport, including the Third Crossing of the Tagus River, rail links (conventional and high-speed) and the need for redundancy in road access to the passenger terminal.
Among other recommendations, participants suggested that ANA explore alternatives to increasing fees at the current Lisbon Airport from 2026 onwards, such as reinvesting profits, capital injections by shareholders, traditional debt financing or European Union subsidies. Some entities also proposed using part of the proceeds from the sale of the current airport's land, thus avoiding fee increases for users.
The concessionaire proposes to finance the project without public subsidies, combining debt of up to €7.3 billion with operating revenues, including a gradual increase in fees. ANA argues that the strategy reduces financial risks, brings forward studies and accelerates the timetable for the new airport.
The specifications for the new airport are set out in Annex 16 of the concession contract signed in 2012, with an original duration of 50 years, which, according to the proposal for the new airport, may be extended for a further 30 years. The Government will take all necessary legal measures to update this annex.
The letter sent to ANA also clarifies that these changes do not constitute, either legally or under the contract, a reason for the concessionaire to claim the restoration of economic and financial balance.
The schedule foresees the opening of the new airport, at Campo de Tiro de Alcochete, for mid-2037, which may be brought forward to the end of 2036 through optimisations negotiated with the Government.
The consultation report was delivered in July and is the first of four interim reports to be included in the complete application for the new airport, which is due to be submitted by January 2028.
The next milestone in the process will be the submission of the Environmental Report, scheduled for January 2026. The Government stresses, however, that ANA may proceed with the subsequent reports — environmental and technical — using the optimised versions already validated by the State.
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