Maputo, Oct. 3, 2025 (Lusa) - The Bank of Mozambique highlights the potential economic impacts of the floods expected in the first quarter of 2026, particularly on food supplies, which is one of the factors that influence medium-term economic projections.
In the September Economic Situation and Inflation Outlook Report, the central bank identifies among the "main internal assumptions" the "continued high pressure on the State Budget, as well as the "gradual restoration of productive capacity and the supply of goods and services".
There is also the "forecast of severe flooding" in the first quarter of 2026, "which will condition the supply of goods, especially food", it says.
However, the report emphasises, in a context of "stability in the exchange rate of the metical against the US dollar", leading to projections that "inflation will remain under control, at single-digit levels in the medium term, despite the risks associated with fiscal deterioration and supply shocks".
"As for economic activity, excluding the natural gas sector, moderate growth is anticipated, sustained by the gradual progress of projects in strategic sectors of the national economy," the document also reads, pointing out that "the risks and uncertainties associated with inflation projections remain high".
"The impacts of the worsening fiscal situation, in a context of growing challenges for mobilising financial resources for the State Budget, as well as climate shocks and the slowness in restoring productive capacity and the supply of goods and services, are likely to increase inflation in the medium term," it concludes.
The Mozambican authorities warned on 12 September of floods of "great magnitude" in the country, as well as flooding on at least 4 million hectares of farmland during the rainy season, which began in October.
"In this second period [of the rainy season], which is January, February and March, we think we're going to have rains, we're going to have floods of great magnitude, we classify it as a high regime, especially in the Incomáti, Maputo and Limpopo basins," said Agostinho Vilankulos, national director of Water Resources Management, on the sidelines of the National Climate Forecast Forum for the 2025/2026 rainy season, in Maputo.
According to Vilankulos, dams in Mozambique's neighbouring countries, including South Africa and Eswatini, are at 99% of their storage level and therefore have little capacity to retain more water, a situation that will lead to run-off and consequent flooding in the country.
"If the dams are full, then they don't have any more capacity, so any rain that falls in neighbouring countries becomes runoff and comes to our country," Vilankulos warned, pointing to the municipalities of Matola, Maputo, Beira, and Quelimane as being at "high risk of flooding".
He added that the agricultural sector is also expected to be affected by the rains, with at least four million hectares at risk.
At the same event, Isaías Raiva, a climatologist from the National Meteorological Institute, said that there would be rain throughout the country between January and March, with a major impact on southern Mozambique, as well as "some dry periods".
Américo José, from the Mozambican National Health Institute, predicts a higher incidence of malaria and diarrhoea in the provinces of Nampula, in the north, Zambézia and Tete, in the centre of the country, during the rainy season, considering that climate change represents a "direct and indirect threat to the health sector".
Hiten Jantilal, the national director of Agriculture, announced preventive measures in the face of the approaching rains, including recommendations to farmers on "when to start sowing and how to minimise the risk of pests and diseases".
PVJ/ADB // ADB.
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