London, Sept. 29, 2025 (Lusa) - Consultancy firm Oxford Economics predicts that Angola will become the African continent's largest diamond producer this year, overtaking Botswana, but warns that developments in the diamond sector will not guarantee significant gains.
"Recent data suggests that Angola's diamond production surpassed that of Botswana in the second quarter of 2025, and we expect Botswana's diamond production to remain moderate this year due to intentional cuts in production, while Angola's is expected to show an upward trend," the analysts write.
This means that Angola is expected to produce 16.1 million carats, compared to 15.1 million in Botswana, according to a comment on diamond production in the second quarter by the African department of this British consultancy.
"Angola's diamond production is expected to exceed that of Botswana for the first time this year," it says, but notes that "due to the fall in global diamond prices, the benefits will be moderate."
Production in Botswana "fell sharply" to 2.7 million carats (ca), compared to 4.7 million ca produced in the first three months of the year, and even looking at the first half of the year as a whole, the figures are equally negative: a drop from 8.4 million ca produced in the first six months of 2024 to 7.4 million produced from January to June this year.
In a note sent to clients, to which Lusa had access, Oxford Economics explains that although Angola's National Statistics Institute does not provide data on production in carats, the Industrial Production sub-index allows calculations to be made.
Thus, diamond production in Angola "increased to 3.7 million carats in the second quarter of 2025, compared to 3.6 million carats in the first quarter," which means that, for the six months as a whole, "Angola's estimated diamond production reached 7.3 million carats, which still represents a decline from 9.1 million carats in the second half of 2024".
Beyond the first half of the year, Oxford Economics estimates that Botswana's diamond production "will remain moderate for the rest of the year due to substantial cuts in production by De Beers, which controls about 95% of the country's diamond production", while "Angola's diamond production is likely to increase and peak in the last quarter of the year".
Consequently, they conclude, "Angola's diamond production is expected to reach 16.1 million carats this year, higher than Botswana's forecast of 15.1 million carats," a difference that could be even greater if several diamond mines remain closed for an extended period in Botswana.
In its analysis, Oxford Economics warns, however, that the increase in production will not correspond to a significant gain, and points to two reasons.
Firstly, because last year the value of diamond sales in Angola already exceeded that of Botswana (US$1.41 billion, around €1.2 billion, in Angola, compared to US$1.36 billion, or €1.16 billion, in Botswana), and because structural changes in the sector, with the increase in lab-grown diamonds, mean that "the timing for Angola to become a diamond powerhouse could not be worse".
On a similar note, SODIAM will auction 36 diamonds weighing 10.80 carats or more electronically, the Angolan state-owned diamond trading company announced today.
In a press release, the National Diamond Trading Company - SODIAM said that viewing sessions will take place from 30 September to 7 October, and the bidding process will close on 8 October at 10:00 am local time.
The auction, organised in collaboration with TRANS ATLANTIC GEM SALES, is aimed at customers registered in SODIAM's database with expertise in the marketing of special stones, it said.
The lot of 36 special stones is subdivided into 18 stones from Catoca production, six from Kaixepa production, five stones from Lulo production, three from Chitololo production, two stones from Somiluana production, one stone from Calonda production and one stone from Mussende production.
The note emphasises that this is the fifteenth rough diamond auction organised by SODIAM since 2019, the last one having been held in June this year.
In 2024, SODIAM exported around 10.2 million carats of rough diamonds worth around US$1.48 billion (€1.2 billion), corresponding to an average price of US$145 per carat, positioning Angola as the world's third largest producer of rough diamonds in terms of value.
MBA/AYLS // AYLS
Lusa
