Maputo, Aug. 14, 2025 (Lusa) - The Mozambican government estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) was 10.14% below its target in 2024 due to the post-election crisis and the impact of cyclones, according to official forecasts consulted on Thursday by Lusa.
According to information contained in the Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario (CFMP) for 2026 to 2028, recently approved by the Government, this difference was only exceeded in recent years in 2022, with GDP 12.50% below target, but the government concedes that in 2025 the country's economy will still be 2.78% below its target "This shows that the economy is operating significantly below its productive capacity, a phenomenon mainly attributed to the post-election crisis and the impact of Cyclone Chido in 2024 [in December]," the document reads.
It adds that "although the economy may see a recovery in real growth for the year 2025," it is still expected that "the GDP gap will remain in negative territory" until next year: "That is, below its productive capacity, due to the persistence of certain cumulative effects resulting from the successive shocks recently observed."
According to the document, the government estimates that this scenario will only be reversed in 2026, "supported by the implementation of measures aimed at economic recovery".
The document containing structural forecasts for the Mozambican economy begins by warning that "certain exogenous fiscal risks could exert adverse pressure on the current macro-fiscal framework [2026 to 2028], with particular emphasis on possible natural disasters, security threats in the northern region of the country and the persistence of post-election demonstrations".
‘'With regard to natural disasters, Mozambique’s geographical location makes the country particularly vulnerable to the cyclical occurrence of extreme weather events, which have adverse impacts on both the population and the least resilient infrastructure, thus compromising socio-economic and fiscal stability," it adds.
According to the government, the ‘'most recent projections indicate the persistence of the neutral phase" of the El Niño phenomenon until the beginning of the next rainy season, which starts in October, after which "there are signs of a possible transition to typical La Niña conditions", which "tend to favour increased rainfall in the central and southern regions of the country".
The minister of finance, Carla Loveira, said on 16 June that Mozambique's economic and financial scenario remains "challenging", acknowledging that the impacts of post-election social tension were still being felt in the first quarter of the year.
She recalled that "in recent years’ the country's macroeconomic management has faced challenges arising from external and internal shocks that deeply affect" the economy, such as terrorism in Cabo Delgado, extreme weather events and "violent demonstrations" after the general elections of 9 October.
These culminated in "the destruction of public and private infrastructure, which led to a slowdown in the economy of 3.6 percentage points in 2024, standing at 1.9% against the 5.5% projected in the PESOE [Economic and Social Plan and State Budget] for that year," she said.
"This situation was confirmed in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP showing a negative variation of 3.9% compared to the same period in 2024, influenced by negative variations in the secondary sector of 16.2%, followed by the tertiary sector with a negative variation of 8%", added Carla Loveira.
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