Lisbon, July 24, 2025 (Lusa) - Climate change may be driving tuna further north in the Atlantic, with potential impacts on marine biodiversity and sustainable fisheries management, according to a study released on Thursday.
Published in the scientific journal ‘Biodiversity and Conservation’, the study projects “significant changes in the distribution of the main tuna species caught in the Atlantic Ocean in response to climate change”, according to a statement from the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon (Ciências ULisboa).
The study was led by researchers from MARE - Centre for Marine and Environmental Sciences, Ciências ULisboa, in collaboration with CESAM (Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies) and the Institute of Marine Research (CSIC, Spain).
Using models to predict how environmental conditions may affect tuna areas in the future, the study analysed three climate evolution scenarios until the end of the century: an optimistic one, in which there is an average global temperature increase of 2 °C (two degrees Celsius), an intermediate one, with increases between +3.5 °C and +4 °C, and a severe one in which the temperature could rise by more than +5 °C.
The conclusions indicate that equatorial regions will no longer be suitable for tuna as they have been until now, with temperate zones gaining ground.
“This trend could affect spawning areas and traditional fishing grounds, with potential ecological and socio-economic implications, especially for communities dependent on fishing for these species in tropical countries,” the statement said.
Quoting the authors, it adds that this pattern represents “a risk of drastic reduction in the area of occurrence”, or even “local extinction of tuna in equatorial regions”.
The research adds that this shift in tuna distribution to higher latitudes could begin as early as 2030, “accompanied by heavy habitat losses in tropical areas”.
The authors of the document note that tuna is one of the most sought-after seafood products for human consumption and say that these changes could affect its availability and supply on the market.
“This type of projection is essential to anticipate changes and support adaptive fisheries management,” explains Priscila Silva, a researcher at MARE-ULisboa/ARNET and the study’s lead author, quoted in the statement.
Francisco Borges, also author of the study and researcher at MARE-ULisboa/ARNET, adds: “The results show that tuna distribution may change substantially in the coming decades, raising important challenges for fisheries management. Integrating climate scenarios into decision-making could be key to ensuring the resilience of marine ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.”
The research highlights the importance of ocean surface temperature, dissolved oxygen and salinity as the main environmental factors that will influence the future distribution of tuna.
Ciências ULisboa hosts 13 research centres.
MARE - Centre for Marine and Environmental Sciences is a research centre created in 2015 that includes eight Regional Research Units.
ARNET - Aquatic Research Network is a multi-institutional Associated Laboratory that conducts research in the fields of biological and environmental sciences.
In 2022, global tuna catches exceeded 8.3 million tonnes, the highest figure ever recorded, with the main commercial species accounting for around 60% of this production.
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