Washington, Oct. 6, 2026 (Lusa) — The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for Angola to 4.5% this year, while inflation in Mozambique is expected to rise from 4.4% to 7.5%, according to a report released Tuesday.
In the October edition of the Africa Economic Update, the World Bank forecasts that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared with the April edition, with forecasts revised upwards for 35 of the region's 47 countries, including Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Zambia.
In Angola, growth is expected to accelerate from 3.1% in 2025 to 4.5% this year – one of the region's strongest accelerations – before moderating to 3.3% in 2027 and 3.1% in 2028.
The institution emphasises that the Angolan economy maintained «strong momentum» in the second quarter, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 8.74% year-on-year.
As an oil exporter, Angola is less exposed to the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East and has benefited from the rise in crude oil prices, which has boosted export revenues and foreign exchange inflows, helping to ease pressure on the exchange rate and improve the current account balance, the report states.
Angolan inflation is expected to fall from 20.2% in 2025 to 10.3% this year, although the World Bank noted that gains from oil could be partially offset by inflationary pressures that affect household welfare.
For Mozambique, the World Bank forecasts 0.6% growth this year, following a 0.2% contraction in 2025, while rising inflation places the country among the six in the region with an increase of more than three percentage points.
The country was reclassified as being in a state of ‘debt distress' in February, due to the accumulation of arrears and public debt deemed unsustainable, estimated at 94.6% of GDP by the end of this year, according to the report, and which could exceed 100% next year.
Mozambique paid around $700 million (€606 million) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by the end of March, which unblocked talks on a new programme; however, officials are still developing a restructuring framework, and domestic debt payments have been deferred and rolled over through the issuance of new bonds.
Cabo Verde, whose growth is expected to slow from 6.3% to 5.3% this year, is among the countries exposed to the energy shock, but tourism and remittances from emigrants are helping sustain Cabo Verde's current account, although they do not fully offset the rise in imports.
In Guinea-Bissau, growth is expected to slow from 5.8% to 4.9%, but the country is among those recording the greatest improvements in the primary balance between 2024 and 2026, thanks to fiscal adjustment measures, improved revenue performance and economic recovery.
São Tomé and Príncipe, meanwhile, is expected to grow by just 0.4% this year, following 1.0% in 2025, with inflation remaining at 11.0%, and the country continues to rely heavily on tourism for foreign exchange.
Year 2026.........................GDP.......InflationAngola...........................4.5 %. . . 10.3% Cabo Verde.......................5.3 %.……2.4 %Guinea-Bissau.....................4.9 %.……2.0 % Equatorial Gunea................-1.2 %............2.7%Mozambique.......................0.6 %...........7.5% Sao Tome and Príncipe..............0.4 %. . . 11.0%Source: Africa Economic Update, October 2026
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