Lisbon, Sept. 24, 2026 (Lusa) - The partial sale of TAP and SATA Internacional and Handling could help to further reduce the public debt ratio, the Public Finance Council (CFP) said on Thursday.
In its updated analysis of the main risks to the budgetary outlook, the institution highlights the partial sale of TAP and SATA Internacional and Handling, which leaves the budget balance unchanged but could further reduce the public debt ratio.
The TAP privatisation process provides for the sale of up to 49.9% of TAP's share capital, of which 5% is reserved for employees; the selected investor may acquire any unsubscribed portion under a right of first refusal.
Meanwhile, the tender specifications for the privatisation of SATA Internacional/Azores Airlines propose selling at least 75% of the company and guaranteeing job retention and avoiding collective redundancies for 30 months.
Among the upside risks identified by the CFP, the budgetary trajectory could also benefit from tax revenue from the sale of EDP's dams (€335 million), the Temporary Solidarity Contribution on the Oil Sector, potential European support in response to storms, and slower-than-planned implementation of nationally funded public investment.
On the other hand, budgetary risks are predominantly downward, such as uncertainty over escalating geopolitical tensions, which «may justify additional measures to support the economy and households», noted the CFP.
There is also the risk of cost overruns in the measures adopted, as well as risks linked to BES, ongoing legal proceedings and contingent liabilities.
Regarding risks to economic activity and inflation, particular attention should focus on the high level of uncertainty regarding price trends, linked to the resumption of military operations in the Middle East, the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy stance, and tensions in the global sovereign debt market.
In this update to the Economic and Budgetary Outlook, the CFP forecasts a budget surplus of 0.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year and a deficit of 0.2% in 2027, whilst the public debt ratio will continue to fall to 85.9% this year and 83.5% next year.
As for the economy, the CFP forecasts growth of 2.2% this year and 1.8% in 2027. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 3.2% in 2026, before easing to 2.6% in 2027.
MES/ADB // ADB.
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