Lisbon, Sept. 22, 2026 (Lusa) - House prices in Portugal pose the main vulnerability for the financial sector, with future implications, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.
Property prices have risen by 169% in Portugal since 2015, compared with 55% in the eurozone, noted Michaela Erbenova, Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at a conference organised by the Bank of Portugal in Lisbon.
Household debt remains below the eurozone average, although it is now trending upwards, she noted.
Despite this cautionary note, she indicated that house prices appear high, but «immediate risks are contained».
Banks are «highly resilient» to shocks in the property market, but the credit cycle is changing, and buffers may diminish, she acknowledged, pointing out that the policy priority is to «preserve resilience».
Gohar Minasyan, a senior economist at the IMF who was also present at the conference, highlighted that the analysis of Portugal included stress tests based on scenarios of house price corrections, notably a sensitivity analysis involving a 40% drop in property prices, and that in all such exercises, the banks were able to withstand the shocks.
Even so, she continued to recommend «close monitoring» of risks in the property market, particularly given that credit take-up has accelerated, unlike in the past decade.
She also acknowledged that housing affordability «is a significant challenge», stressing that policies should increase housing supply while ensuring public funds allocated to this challenge go to the families who need them most.
Also taking part in a panel at the conference was Paulo Macedo, chief executive of Caixa Geral de Depósitos, who emphasised that employment is another key factor in determining whether there will be a housing crisis, and that unemployment is currently low, providing a «buffer» to prevent a crisis.
He nevertheless acknowledged that property prices are rising and «will continue to rise because there is an imbalance between supply and demand», but pointed out that banks already have balance sheets with lower risk levels.
Given the buffers they have in place and their risk management, Paulo Macedo said he believed they were better prepared for a possible fall in property prices.
MES/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
