Brasilia, Sept. 21, 2026 (Lusa) - Experts Lusa spoke to noted that public security, which the far right co-opted during Jair Bolsonaro's rise to power, has become an increasingly central issue in Brazilian elections.
Gabriel Feltran, a sociologist, professor at Sciences Po in Paris and director of research at the CNRS (France's National Centre for Scientific Research), told Lusa that the electoral debate on security remains characterised by a «moral war» and a fictitious dichotomy between the police and crime.
He said Brazilian President Lula da Silva preferred to leave public security as a state-level matter, while Bolsonaro was the first to nationalise the issue during the 2018 presidential campaign.
«It was the first time that security had become a national issue,» he said, adding that the far right began to see it as a war between «the good police officer and the bad criminal».
For the sociologist, this view overlooks the complexity of the relationship between crime, the police and society and has turned the debate into a binary choice, in which supporting the police has come to be equated with rejecting any criticism of their actions.
Meanwhile, Robson Rodrigues, an associate researcher at the Laboratory for the Analysis of Violence (LAV) at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), pointed out that public safety is Brazilians' main concern in election polls.
Rodrigues observed that, in an election year, far-fetched proposals emerge from candidates and can mislead the electorate, describing these views as «fallacious, punitive and populist rhetoric».
As an example, he pointed out that the chemical castration of rapists, the construction of El Salvador-style prisons, the classification of the two largest criminal factions as terrorists, and tougher penalties for those who steal mobile phones are frequently mentioned by many Brazilian politicians.
«Fear is exploited for political ends. There is a method for winning votes by exploiting a sense of insecurity,» observed Rodrigues, citing operations that result in high police fatality rates and ultimately generate «political dividends».
Feltran rejected the idea that Nayib Bukele's security model, championed by right-wing and far-right candidates in Brazil, could be a solution for Brazil.
The sociologist argued that the country has already implemented similar policies of mass incarceration and police violence, stressing that «Bukele is not the future of public security in Brazil; he is the past of security in Brazil».
According to Feltran, the Brazilian prison system has seen the number of inmates rise from around 90,000 to 950,000, whilst around four million people have passed through the prison system – a process which, in his view, has contributed to the expansion of criminal organisations.
Along the same lines, Rodrigues argued that Brazil can proactively avoid creating a «powder keg» by rethinking its model of mass incarceration, pointing out, for example, that the PCC and Comando Vermelho originated in prisons and have since spread across Brazil.
Both experts said criminal factions can also exploit security policy when funding for incarceration and the police is not matched by mechanisms that prevent corruption and other forms of misappropriation by criminal groups.
The rise in police lethality, which has increased by 55% in the last decade, has not resolved Brazil's problem, despite these policies having been advocated for decades, the experts maintain.
According to the report «Fear of crime and the 2026 elections: the triggers of insecurity», by the Brazilian Forum on Public Security, 41.2% of Brazilians say they recognise the presence of criminal factions or militias in the neighbourhood where they live.
The same study shows that fear of violence alters the daily routine of 57% of those interviewed and affects women and low-income groups more severely.
The theft and robbery of mobile phones also contribute to the sense of violence and insecurity, according to the 20th Brazilian Yearbook of Public Security, which showed that, in 2025, an average of 95 devices were stolen per hour across the country.
The sense of insecurity may influence voting behaviour, according to Gabriel Feltran, yet researchers recognise that crime, the perception of insecurity and voting behaviour are distinct phenomena.
In addition to the Brazilian presidency, in a contest that looks set to be between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazilians will elect, on 4 October, the 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and renew two-thirds of the 81 seats in the Senate.
With polls showing a neck-and-neck race between current Brazilian President Lula da Silva and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, if no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote, voters will return to the polls for a second round scheduled for 25 October.
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