Maputo, Sept. 17, 2026 (Lusa) - The Global ENSO Analysis Cell has warned that Mozambique has only a few weeks to step up preventive measures in the face of the El Niño phenomenon, with the window of opportunity to mitigate the impact of agricultural losses closing at the end of October.
According to the report «El Niño Situation and Humanitarian Outlook», released on Thursday by the Global ENSO Analysis Cell – an inter-agency mechanism for monitoring the humanitarian impacts associated with the climate phenomenon – Mozambique is among the countries in southern Africa most exposed to the effects of the current El Niño episode.
According to the document, the main rainy and planting season in the region runs from October 2026 to April 2027, and «the main window for early action closes at the end of October».
«Activate existing mechanisms and distribute seeds, livestock support, water, nutrition and healthcare before planting decisions are finalised,» the report recommends, addressing the countries of Southern Africa.
Experts warn that the phenomenon is already well established and is expected to reach «very strong» intensity, persisting at least until February 2027.
«The main impacts are yet to come,» the document states, adding that the risks of drought and extreme heat could reduce cultivated areas, agricultural yields, water availability and livestock conditions during the 2026/27 agricultural season.
In its specific assessment of southern Africa, the Global ENSO Analysis Cell indicates that humanitarian partners estimate a 70% probability that rainfall deficits between October and December will exceed those recorded in any El Niño event since 1950.
The report adds that agricultural reserves from the previous season offer temporary protection to vulnerable households, but warns that this safety margin could quickly disappear should the climate forecasts prove accurate.
«Strong harvests in 2025/26 provide a temporary buffer, but the opportunity to build up reserves ends with the planting season,» the document states.
Mozambique is listed alongside Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Madagascar and Angola among the countries considered priorities for early preparedness measures in Southern Africa.
The report also highlights that Mozambique has already activated a United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) early action protocol against drought in four regions, as part of measures to prepare for the expected impacts of the climatic phenomenon.
«Mozambique has activated a FAO early action protocol for drought in four regions,» the document states, advocating for increased support for agriculture and livestock farming, as well as improved access to water, whilst there is still scope to prevent more severe losses.
In addition to Southern Africa, the report identifies as priority areas countries in the Horn of Africa, including Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya, and in West and Central Africa, such as Nigeria, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Chad, Niger and Mali, where the climatic effects could exacerbate situations of hunger, population displacement and disease outbreaks.
The Global ENSO Analysis Cell estimates that up to 50 million people worldwide could be affected by the humanitarian impacts of the current El Niño episode over the next six to nine months.
The Mozambican government intends to strengthen and restore water security for human consumption, agriculture and livestock farming, whilst preparing the health, energy, education and industry sectors to cope with the effects of the phenomenon, according to a plan approved on Monday.
The plan aims to protect vulnerable communities by strengthening monitoring and early warning systems and by mobilising the necessary resources in good time to implement priority measures to mitigate the impacts of El Niño.
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