Maputo, Aug. 18, 2026 (Lusa) - The Mozambican Government forecasts that state revenue from Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) will exceed €87.5 million in 2029, the year in which TotalEnergies' mega-project in Cabo Delgado is scheduled to commence.
These figures are taken from the Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario (CFMP) 2027–2029, recently approved by the Cabinet, a document that guides the formulation of the state budget and fiscal policy for the coming years.
According to the document, state revenues associated with gas projects are expected to reach $80.1 million (€69.4 million) in 2027, $78.4 million (€67.9 million) in 2028 and $101 million (€87.5 million) in 2029.
The Government states that «state revenue from LNG exploitation is expected to remain relatively stable in 2027» and that «from 2029 onwards, a gradual increase is forecast».
Mozambique has three approved mega-development projects for the exploitation of liquefied natural gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin, ranked amongst the largest in the world, off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the north of the country.
Eni's Coral Sul project is the only one in operation, having been so since 2022, with approval last October for investment in a second floating extraction platform, Coral Norte – a $7.2 billion (€6.2 billion) investment – which, from 2028, will enable production to double to 7 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, whilst a third unit is under consideration.
After four years of suspension due to terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado, the Mozambique LNG (Area 1) project, operated by TotalEnergies worth $20 billion (€17.4 billion), officially resumed in January and is projected to reach up to 13 mtpa from 2029, followed by the $30 billion (€26.1 billion) Rovuma LNG project (Area 4), operated by ExxonMobil, with 18 mtpa planned after 2030, and for which a final investment decision is expected in September.
According to the CFMP 2027–2029 projections, Coral Sul will remain operational throughout this period, whilst Coral Norte is expected to commence initial production in 2028. As for the LNG project led by TotalEnergies, the plan envisages the preparation phase in 2027, development in 2028 and «initial production in the final quarter» of 2029.
The official outlook acknowledges that economic growth is expected to benefit progressively from the expansion of the energy sector and major energy projects, particularly LNG.
Under the terms of the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act, which has since been enacted, 60% of net gas revenues will be channelled into the state budget and the remaining 40% into the Mozambique Sovereign Wealth Fund.
The government plans to transfer approximately $48.1 million (€41.7 million) to the state budget in 2027, $47 million (€40.7 million) in 2028 and $60.6 million (€52.5 million) in 2029.
The CFMP states that these funds will support investment in economic and social infrastructure, agriculture, renewable energy and industry.
Despite the favourable outlook, the Government acknowledges that the projections remain dependent on developments in international markets, project timetables and the security situation in the areas where projects are being implemented, against a backdrop in which Cabo Delgado province continues to experience attacks by insurgent groups.
The forecasts form part of the government's fiscal consolidation strategy, which aims to gradually increase the share of domestic revenue in state financing and reduce the vulnerability of public finances.
The document forecasts a reduction in public debt from 72.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 to 67.1% in 2029, driven by the growing contribution from LNG revenues.
PVJ/AYLS // AYLS
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