Lisbon, Jan. 27, 2026 (Lusa) - Portuguese winemakers confirm the estimate by the National Statistics Institute (INE), which points to a decline in production in 2025, justified by adverse weather conditions that required many phytosanitary treatments, and are now looking at 2026 with some caution.
"Official figures point to a 14% drop compared to the 2024 harvest and 16% compared to the average of the last five years," said Ana Isabel Alves, executive director of ACIBEV - Associação de Vinhos e Espirituosas de Portugal (Portuguese Wine and Spirits Association), in response to Lusa.
As she explained, 2025 was a "very demanding" agricultural year, which required several phytosanitary treatments, resulting in production losses.
Smaller winegrowers find it difficult to carry out all the necessary treatments, either for economic reasons or due to a lack of equipment, which results in even more significant drops in production.
The "excessive heat" felt during the summer led to a sharp decrease in the weight of the grapes.
Ana Isabel Alves said that, given the surplus stocks the sector had before the 2025 harvest, a decrease of between 10% and 20% will lead to an adjustment in reserves and "possibly a stabilisation of prices", which she considered to be an "unfair way of adjusting the sector's stocks".
According to the first estimate of the National Statistics Institute's "Economic Accounts for Agriculture - 2025", although wine production - one of the main national agricultural products, alongside olive oil - is this year "the lowest in the last decade, it is expected that quality wines will be obtained, with balanced sugar levels and good aromatic concentration".
Sogrape, one of Portugal's largest wine producers, also saw lower volumes, although with varying results depending on the region.
"The rainy and mild spring favoured diseases such as mildew, and the very hot and dry summer caused burns and dehydration of the grapes," Sogrape's executive director, João Gomes da Silva, explained to Lusa.
However, the company anticipates a "manageable impact," as Sogrape is prepared for cycles of greater volatility.
"We work with diversification of origins, inventory management, and a portfolio of brands and markets that helps mitigate volume fluctuations. The high quality of this harvest allows us to preserve value in our main brands," he said.
Similarly, Casa Santos Lima said that production in 2025 was lower than in 2024, highlighting the "exceptional quality" of the grapes, which allows the company to "face this harvest with enormous confidence".
The impact will be felt mainly in terms of wine stocks, although the company says it has reserves to meet the needs of the markets where it operates.
Regarding the impact of the geopolitical context on the sector, the Wine and Spirits Association, ACIBEV, pointed out that exports were affected by the instability associated with US tariff policy, since, until the value was defined, importers did not risk buying wine at a price "and three weeks later (the time it takes for containers to reach the US), its value had increased substantially".
The lack of predictability ended up penalising the sector more than the tariff value itself, it acknowledged.
On the other hand, given that wine is not a staple product, it is to be expected that consumers will reduce their purchases in order to save money.
"The US is also applying a lower tariff to wines from our competitor countries such as Argentina, Australia, Chile and New Zealand, creating “less fair” competition," the association said.
Even so, for this year, ACIBEV expects the sector to maintain sales, boosted by the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur and the prospect of a free trade agreement with India being approved in the short term.
On these matters, Sogrape pointed out that the 15% tariff applied by the US to European wines has created "enormous uncertainty" for the business, which has added to the effect felt throughout the value chain since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sogrape also argued that Mercosur is a "fundamental step" that will strengthen the competitiveness of European wines and said it is entering 2026 "with caution and confidence", aware of the degree of uncertainty that lies ahead.
Casa Santos Lima, meanwhile, is responding to geopolitical challenges with a strategy of "innovation and diversification" in terms of supply and export destinations, creating products tailored to different price profiles and consumer preferences.
"We believe that 2026 will be a particularly challenging year for the wine sector. The difficulties and threats that marked 2025 [...] are likely to be accentuated if aggravated by substantially more intense competition between companies in the sector, both nationally and internationally," it concluded.
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