Sao Tome, Jan. 7, 2026 (Lusa) - The Sao Tome Central Bank estimated on Tuesday that the archipelago's economic growth will stand at 2.1% in 2025 and reach 3.9% this year and in 2027, and warned that monetary policy will remain restrictive in the face of "high and persistent" inflation.
According to the Governor of the Central Bank, Agostinho Fernandes, "economic growth remained modest" and for 2025, "real GDP [Gross Domestic Product] growth is estimated at 2.1%, higher than in 2024, but below expectations at the beginning of 2025".
"A real but fragile recovery, still insufficiently consolidated," he stressed.
Agostinho Fernandes said that, in conjunction with government policies, "real GDP growth of around 3.9% is estimated for 2026 and 2027, contrasting with the average recorded in recent years." In the medium term, "average annual growth of around 3.0% is expected."
"These projections remain subject to significant risks, namely geopolitical shocks with an impact on global prices, structural limitations in the areas of energy and infrastructure, increasing climate risks and fiscal risks in a context of budgetary rigour and the electoral cycle," he warned.
The Governor of the São Tomé Central Bank also noted that "inflation remains high and persistent" and "for 2025, it is estimated to be around 12%," which "requires the Central Bank to act firmly, prudently and responsibly."
"Until inflation is firmly under control, the Central Bank will maintain a prudent and restrictive monetary policy stance, even when this requires difficult decisions," he said.
According to Fernandes, the Central Bank's "strategic ambition" remains unchanged, in the sense of "achieving, in the medium term, inflation close to 5%, converging with inflation in the euro area", which "requires macroeconomic discipline, effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies and the intensification of structural reforms".
The Central Bank Governor also pointed to "significant progress" on the fiscal side, noting that "in 2024, for the first time in several decades, there was a zero primary balance, with a primary surplus of around 0.5% of GDP projected for 2025".
He also said that "the export sector has contributed significantly to economic growth," noting that "cocoa exports have reached their highest levels in decades" and that "the tourism sector, with its vast potential for expansion, is already on a sustained growth trajectory."
The Governor also pointed out that "remittances from emigrants have increased significantly and now play an important role in supporting domestic consumption" and that the Central Bank will work to "ensure that these flows are channelled through formal, secure and transparent channels".
The Central Bank will also work "to address a structural challenge" regarding the "low level of financial inclusion, strongly associated with high economic informality, where more than 80% of micro and small businesses are located."
In his New Year's speech, the São Toméan President said that the 2025 data represent "a significant turnaround from previous years of stagnation and mark the beginning of a trajectory of sustainable economic recovery, capable of generating more opportunities, more investment and more hope".
For Vila Nova, "these results show that the policies adopted are having a concrete effect on price stabilisation and defending the purchasing power of São Toméan families, reinforcing confidence in the present and future of our country."
In December, the International Monetary Fund approved the second review of the programme in Sao Tome, disbursing $2.9 million, and extended the agreement for 12 months, ensuring a further $6.1 million.
JYAF/ADB // ADB.
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