Lisbon, Nov. 18, 2025 (Lusa) - The Institute for Security Studies (ISS), an African observer of political and social dynamics in several countries on the continent, has warned of the risk of a post-election crisis in Guinea-Bissau.

In a recently published article, the ISS analysed the Guinean panorama in the run-up to the general elections on Sunday, 23 November, and concluded that several factors "increase the risk of post-electoral problems that could plunge the country back into crisis".

Specifically, the Institute pointed to the exclusion of the historic liberation party, the PAIGC, from elections for the first time, the management of the electoral process, also for the first time, internally, without international funding or support, and the alleged "political tensions and internal divisions" in the Guinean Armed Forces.

Founded in 1991, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) is dedicated to human security in Africa through research, policy analysis, technical assistance and training.

In its observation of the electoral process in Guinea-Bissau, it concludes that "the exclusion of the main opposition and rivalry between military factions could destabilise the 23 November elections", in which Guineans are called to the polls to elect a new speaker of parliament and deputies to the People's National Assembly.

According to the report, "tensions are rising in Guinea-Bissau as the elections approach," which, it considers, "are taking place under unusual circumstances."

The ISS said that "parliament has not met since December 2023, when it was dissolved by the President (Umaro Sissoco Emabló) after the National Guard clashed with the Presidential Guard," in an alleged coup attempt.

The dissolution removed from power the majority of the PAI-Terra Ranka coalition, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cabo Verde (PAIGC) and chaired by Domingos Simões Pereira, Embaló's main opponent in the last presidential elections in 2019.

Domingos lost the previous presidential elections to Embaló, "who took over the presidency in February 2020, in the midst of a post-election crisis and without waiting for confirmation of his victory" by the Supreme Court of Justice, which would only happen in September 2020.

The ISS sees this as "the second controversial moment" in the electoral process, which has 12 presidential candidates and 14 legislative candidates, with attention focussed on the election of the new President of the Republic.

Sunday's elections, notes the Institute, "should help the country restore institutional legitimacy, but political actors are cautious".

"In addition to political tensions, there are fissures in the Armed Forces and widespread public scepticism towards state institutions. This situation undermines political stability and the credibility of the process, increasing fears of a possible post-election crisis," it said.

The ISS added that the alliance of the excluded PAIGC with independent candidate Fernando Dias "challenges the regime's certainty of victory, making a run-off election likely".

The organisation described a "political upheaval" in the Guinean electoral process "triggered by the decision of the Supreme Court of Justice to annul the PAIGC's participation in the elections due to the late submission" of the candidacy, which had Domingos Simões Pereira as the protagonist again for the presidency.

The PAIGC and its leader decided to support Fernando Dias, who is running as an independent, since his party, the PRS (Social Renewal Party) split into two factions: one supporting Embaló's candidacy and the other led by Dias, recalls ISS.

According to the ISS, this political reconfiguration "seems to favour Embaló, supported by the 16-party coalition Republican Platform "Nô kumpu Guiné", which is seeking a second term for Embaló and a comfortable majority in the People's National Assembly".

The Institute pointed out that, "although the absence of the PAIGC could have favoured Embaló's victory, the party's support for Dias gives the presidential race a new trajectory".

"The unexpected PAIGC-Dias alliance challenges the regime's certainty of a quick victory, making a second round of elections likely," it says.

Given the current situation, there are two possible scenarios for the ISS, that of a Dias victory, which would lead to cohabitation with an Embaló coalition government, which would dominate parliament and then elect a prime minister.

The Institute added that if Fernando Dias was elected president, there was also "the risk that parliament could be dissolved again, plunging the country into another institutional crisis".

If Sissoco Embaló is elected for a second term, the analysis continues, a majority in parliament for the coalition that supports him would make it possible to revise the Constitution to increase the power of the President of the Republic.

The ISS recalled that "in 2023, when his party (the MADEM G15) failed to win a majority in parliament, the President did not hesitate to dissolve the National [People's] Assembly, in violation of the Constitution," because 12 months had not yet passed since the elections.

In addition to the political stakes, for the Institute, these "elections are peculiar" also because of three other factors, firstly because it is the first time that Guinea-Bissau is financing its own electoral process, noting that "the public questions the origin of the funds, especially in the absence of parliamentary oversight of spending".

Another factor is the absence of long-term electoral observation missions, which the Institute believes is "part of Embaló's strategy to keep the international community out of the process".

The third factor pointed out "is the announcement of the attempted coup on 31 October on the eve of the start of the electoral campaign" to disrupt the electoral process, with several officers arrested, including the director of the Cumeré military school, General Daba Na Walna.

The ISS said that the Guinean army had staged coups in the past and that "power struggles between factions and support for a candidate can influence the outcome of elections".

*** The Lusa news agency's office in Guinea-Bissau has been suspended since August after the government expelled the representatives of the Portuguese media. Coverage is being provided remotely ***

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