Brussels, Nov. 17, 2025 (Lusa) - The European Commission on Monday justified its more pessimistic forecasts than those of the government, with a zero budget balance this year and a deficit next year, with its "more prudent estimates of expenditure growth".
"As for the economic situation in Portugal, we expect a zero budget balance in Portugal this year and a deficit of 0.3% of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] next year. Admittedly, this differs from the government's forecast of a surplus of 0.3% of GDP this year and 0.1% of GDP next year," said EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.
Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on the day that the executive released its projections for economic growth, the European commissioner explained that "the reason for this difference is due to the Commission's more prudent estimates of expenditure growth, particularly current expenditure".
Even so, “it's worth pointing out that the Commission's forecast for next year is still more optimistic than the [Public] Finance Council's forecast, which predicts a deficit next year of 0.6% of GDP, and also that of the Bank of Portugal, which points to [a deficit] of 1.3% of GDP,” said Valdis Dombrovskis.
The European Commission expects Portugal to record a zero budget balance this year and a deficit of 0.3% of GDP in 2026, according to the projections released today.
At the same time, the EU government estimated that the Portuguese economy will grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, revising upwards the estimate for this year and maintaining the projection for next year.
At the press conference, Valdis Dombrovskis alluded to the European Commission's regular requests for an end to the discount on the Tax on Petroleum and Energy Products (ISP).
"We are indeed asking the government to withdraw these energy support measures, which have been in place since the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine," but, "up until the closing date [for gathering information] for these Commission forecasts, the government had not yet announced the elimination of this measure and, therefore, it continues to be taken into account in the forecasts," he explained.
At issue are discounts on ISP on petrol and diesel, supports created in 2022 and 2023 following the energy crisis related to the war in Ukraine and high inflation.
Last week, Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento said in Brussels that the European Commission has not imposed any date that will be gradual.
The government's autumn forecasts are based on a series of technical assumptions about exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, with a cut-off date of 27 October.
For all other data, including assumptions on government policies, the projections take into account information available up to 31 October.
After being criticised by Brussels since 2023, the government will now start gradually withdrawing the ISP benefit, it was announced when the State Budget for 2026 was released.
This exercise is due to the European Commission's recommendations to reduce these discounts, which are exceptional measures aimed at softening the impact of rising fuel prices.
ANE/ADB // ADB.
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