Lisbon, July 30, 2025 (Lusa) - Researcher Fernando Jorge Cardoso argues that “the Angolan repressive apparatus is strong enough to contain the demonstrations” in Luanda and that the main challenge for President João Lourenço is the 2026 elections.
“I think that the repressive apparatus that the MPLA and the Angolan government have is sufficiently solid at this point to be able to contain these demonstrations, which are very inorganic demonstrations,” Fernando Jorge Cardoso, visiting professor at the Autonomous University of Lisbon and specialist in African affairs, told Lusa.
Constitutionally unable to run for a third presidential term, João Lourenço has no choice but to run again for party leader to remain at the head of the MPLA and, in this way, seek to influence the choice of presidential candidate for the party, which has been in power since independence in 1975, the university professor believes.
For Fernando Jorge Cardoso, theoretically, João Lourenço can only remain in the presidency office in two ways: through a coup d'état or a constitutional revision.
"Any constitutional amendment, however small, requires at least two-thirds of MPs. And the MPLA does not have two-thirds of MPs. It has far fewer than that. In other words, UNITA [the largest opposition party] with its 90 MPs prevents any constitutional amendment in this regard. Therefore, unless there is a coup d'état, which will not happen, João Lourenço will not be the next country's president in 2027," he maintains.
Fernando Jorge Cardoso believes that João Lourenço will seek to continue leading the MPLA but, he adds, “there is no guarantee that any indication he gives will be followed by the party itself”.
“The party has, let's say, an instinct for self-preservation in power, and from the moment people start to sense that he [João Lourenço] is going to lose power, as that moment approaches, that will be the big challenge in Angola,” he believes.
Regarding the violent protests that have taken place since Monday in the Angolan capital, Fernando Jorge Cardoso points out that they reflect the fact that Luanda has about 4 million inhabitants “with a growing rate of unemployment and informal underemployment, and a regime that is trapped in its own web”.
The violent protests coincided with a taxi drivers' strike against the end of fuel subsidies and demonstrations against the rising cost of living called for Monday, Tuesday and today.
The provisional toll from the Angolan authorities is 22 dead, 197 injured and 1,214 arrests in the two days of riots, according to figures released by the Angolan Interior Minister, Manuel Homem, at the end of today's Cabinet meeting, where the situation over the last two days, marked by acts of vandalism in the Angolan capital, was assessed.
Regarding the protests, marked by vandalism and looting of warehouses and commercial establishments selling food and other consumer goods, Fernando Jorge Cardoso maintains that the Angolan authorities limited themselves to “deploying their entire repressive apparatus and thereby managed to contain” the demonstrations.
“In fact, the main centre of power is the country’s capital, and the capital is highly controlled. I don’t believe that spontaneous demonstrations will do more than create some instability and cause damage, particularly to businesses and individuals, but they will not pose a major problem to the established power, in my view,” he added.
The university professor says that if he were an Angolan minister, he would only tamper with fuel prices "as a last resort".
“And only if I was very sure that I could explain this to the public. But even if I explained it, probably no one would believe me, or they would say what is the correct thing to say: ‘put the money you took out back in, instead of taking it from us’,” he concludes.
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