Porto, Portugal, July 29, 2025 (Lusa) - A study by the Faculty of Economics of Porto University indicates that the national standard of living compared to the EU is "lower than previously thought", as the official figure is "overestimated" due to a lack of updated immigration data from the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA).
"In fact, the Portuguese standard of living is lower than previously thought, naturally assessed by GDP [Gross Domestic Product] per capita at purchasing power parity. It has been overestimated because it does not take into account the entire foreign resident population," Óscar Afonso, director of the Faculty of Economics of Porto University (FEP) and one of the authors of a study by the FEP's Office of Economic, Business and Public Policy Studies (G3E2P), in the case of Flash analysis no. 3 of 2025, released today, told Lusa.
According to Óscar Afonso, official data show that "in 2023, the standard of living was 80.7% of the European Union [EU] average," with Portugal ranking 18th in Europe.
“But if we correct this using data from AIMA [Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum], we drop to 78.92%, or 19th place,” he said, pointing out that in 2024, 2025 and 2026 “there is a downward revision of 2.4 percentage points, which remains unchanged”.
According to the academic, if we consider the AIMA data and estimates from the study on population trends, in 2024 "the standard of living will be 79.18% against the official 81.6%, in 2025 it will be 79.27% against the official 81.70%, and in 2026 79.47% against the official 81.9%".
At issue is the difference between the data in the Interim Report on the Recovery of Pending Cases from AIMA, released in April, taking into account “the upward revision of the average population resulting from the new numbers of foreigners with legal resident status”, and the data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), which have not yet been revised.
"The foreign population has increased sharply. In 2017, it grew by 4.1%. In 2024, it grew by 14.4% and there are now 1.6 million foreign residents," said Óscar Afonso, referring to an increase in immigrants of around 300,000 per year and considering that "the economy did not need so many", despite needing them in order "to grow". The economist advocated a "different pattern of specialisation".
According to the study's calculations, Portugal would now need to receive 80,000 immigrants per year to be in the top half of the richest EU countries in 2033. The document aims to “raise awareness of the fact that immigration must be aligned with what the economy needs”.
“I think we should treat all human beings with dignity, that is the first point. That said, I think this study makes sense because we don’t want people to come here and then be treated badly, and walk around being mistreated and having no income. That’s not what we want,” he argued.
The economist summarises that, according to the study's data, “Portugal has not exceeded 80% [of the EU average standard of living] since 2010, contrary to what the official data from the European Commission indicate”, being practically at the same level as Romania in 2026, with 79.47% for Portugal and 79.45% for Romania.
“Portugal will then fall to 21st place in 2026, making it the seventh worst in the European Union, and could fall to 22nd, the sixth worst, if Romania performs slightly better or we perform slightly worse,” he warns.
The director of the FEP recalls that "in 1999, Romania had a standard of living, compared to the European Union average, of 26.9%, and Portugal had 85%", and that "in 2026, Romania will be at 79.45% and Portugal at 79.47%".
“In other words, Romania went from 26.9% to 79.45% and Portugal went from 85% to 79.47%, even though we had more funds and achieved this mediocre performance,” he argued, pointing out that Romania grew 4% per year between 1999 and 2019 and Portugal 0.9%, and warning that, in the future, “without reforms, Portugal will be definitively overtaken by Romania” and “will move towards the tail end of Europe”.
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