Lisbon, June 17, 2025 (Lusa) - Portugal's government remains confident that a budget surplus of 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be achieved this year, the Minister of Finance said on Tuesday.

Speaking during the discussion of the Government Programme in parliament, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento recalled that the AD government "exceeded expectations" last year by achieving a surplus of 0.7%, "more than three times what the previous government had predicted".

As for 2025, the government maintains its "commitment to a balanced budget" and projects a “surplus” of 0.3% of GDP, even at a time when there are already institutions that monitor Portugal's public accounts that project a return to budget deficits this year or next.

The Bank of Portugal predicts a deficit of 0.1% of GDP this year and 1.3% next year, while the Public Finance Council points to a balanced budget in 2025 and a deficit of 1% in 2026.

The European Commission anticipates that Portugal will achieve a budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP this year, which will turn into a deficit of 0.6% in 2026.

Despite maintaining the estimates, the minister assumed that 2026 will be "a more demanding year from a budgetary point of view, given that the full implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan in terms of loans represents an expense".

Miranda Sarmento also emphasised that the government estimates that the public debt ratio will fall to 91.5% of GDP, pointing out that "this year 2025 or at the latest in 2026 Portugal will reach a public debt below the eurozone average".

He acknowledged that international uncertainty "makes the basic assumption of a balanced budget even more critical, to protect Portugal from possible negative external shocks", reiterating the government's commitment to this balance.

MES/ADB // ADB.

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