The Greek economy is expected to remain resilient, with GDP growing by 2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 thanks to investments from the Recovery Fund and an increase in the minimum wage and disposable income that will support consumption, according to an OECD report (Economic Outlook).

The OECD noted that disbursements of grants and loans from the Recovery and Resilience Fund are expected to increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2026, while private consumption is expected to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.7% in 2026.

Exports are expected to slow, along with a slowdown in demand from abroad, mainly from European Union countries, due to US tariffs.

For the Eurozone, GDP is forecast to grow by 1% this year and 1.2% in 2026, compared to 0.8% GDP growth last year. For the global economy, the OECD forecasts a significant slowdown in growth to 2.9% both this year and 2026, from 3.3% in 2024.

The OECD underlined that the Greek economy remains strong, with business expectations in the manufacturing and services sectors having declined in April but continuing to indicate a growth path. It added that any delays in the absorption of the Recovery Fund resources for investment, excessive wage growth or a recurrence of extreme weather phenomena could worsen the economic outlook. Regarding wages, it said that if their increase continues to consistently outpace productivity growth, this could further weaken exports.

Inflation (based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is expected to decline to 2.5% this year and further to 2% in 2026, thanks to lower oil prices, despite rising trade costs and persistent price increases in the services sector.

Significant primary budget surpluses are projected for 2025 and 2026, at 2.1% and 2.2% of GDP, respectively, supported by improved tax compliance.

"Maintaining public debt on a steady downward path should remain a priority, as the costs of an ageing population and investment needs increase future spending pressures," the report highlighted.