Maputo, Oct. 6, 2026 (Lusa) - Business confidence in Mozambique reached its highest level in almost nine years in September, despite a slowdown in economic activity in terms of production and employment, according to the PMI index released on Tuesday by Standard Bank.
Conditions for Mozambican businesses improved in September for the third consecutive month, but at the slowest pace since June, according to the latest PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) from Standard Bank Mozambique, to which Lusa had access. The indicator fell from 51.9 points in August to 50.2 points in September.
PMI readings above 50 points indicate an improvement in business conditions compared with the previous month, whilst readings below this figure indicate a deterioration.
The result signals expansion in private sector activity at the end of the third quarter, albeit at a slower pace. According to the study, «operating conditions improved slightly in September», as growth in new business and purchases of inputs offset the weakening observed in other indicators.
However, business activity declined for the first time since May and recorded its sharpest contraction since January 2025.
«Growth in new orders lost momentum in September,» the report states, although the volume of new business continued to rise for the third consecutive month. Firms frequently cited customers' financial constraints, reduced commercial dynamism and the postponement of investment decisions as factors hampering sales.
Employment also fell again, marking the second decline in three months, whilst purchase stocks rose for the third consecutive month, recording the strongest expansion since August 2022, reflecting firms' preparations for busier activity in the coming months.
The study also notes that input costs continued to rise in September, driven by expenditure on fuel, transport, raw materials and wages.
The main positive sign from the survey once again emerged in terms of expectations: the index of future activity rose for the second consecutive month and reached its highest level since November 2017 – almost nine years ago.
«More than three-quarters of companies forecast growth in the coming year, the highest level of confidence in almost nine years,» the document states.
It adds that these «positive forecasts» are due «largely to investment plans, increased production capacity, expected sales growth and the expansion of market share».
Quoted in the study, Fáusio Mussá, chief economist at Standard Bank Mozambique, stated that the decline in the PMI in September «mainly reflects the contractions observed in the production and employment sub-indices», but continues to «point to an improvement in the economic outlook».
The improvement in business sentiment also reflects «a decline in unmet demand for foreign currency in the foreign exchange market», as well as progress made on liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, which are expected to boost aggregate demand over the next 12 months.
The economist also considered that the data point to a continued gradual recovery of the economy, supported by improved availability of foreign currency linked to exports and foreign investment associated with LNG mega-projects.
However, he warned of several risks that continue to constrain economic activity, notably the rising cost of fuel imports, the impacts of climate change, foreign exchange delays, the deterioration in the government's fiscal position and credit restrictions.
Standard Bank maintains its forecast for Mozambique's economic growth at 0.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, whilst also anticipating that inflation will end the year at levels slightly below 7%.
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