London, Sept. 28, 2026 (Lusa) - The credit rating agency Moody's has upgraded the outlook for the Angolan economy to Positive, citing the stability of the African economy, and has maintained the rating at B3, which remains below investment grade.
«The change in outlook to positive reflects Angola's emerging track record of greater macroeconomic stability, both during periods of high and low oil prices; despite higher budget deficits than in 2023 and 2024, improved macroeconomic management is contributing to a reduction in public debt and interest costs, which we forecast to stand at around 46 per cent of GDP and 23% of revenue, respectively, by the end of 2026», the analysts write.
In the note accompanying the decision to maintain the rating at B3, Moody's also points out that if the country manages to maintain «continuous improvements in the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies and in support for non-oil economic activity», it will be able to reduce the risk of a further deterioration in public debt indicators and strengthen its sovereign credit profile.
For Moody's, maintaining the rating below investment grade, or ‘junk' as it is commonly known, «reflects its continued economic and fiscal dependence on the oil sector, which remains a source of vulnerability despite improvements in macroeconomic management».
The country's exposure to oil price volatility is exacerbated by limited budgetary reserves and vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations, given that 80% of the country's debt is denominated in foreign currency.
The challenge, they point out, is less the amount of debt than its high interest costs, which «limit budgetary flexibility».
In the note, Moody's highlights several macroeconomic indicators showing positive trends, such as the fall in inflation to 8.8% in August, compared with the 19% recorded a year earlier, and overall GDP growth, which accelerated to 8.7% in the second quarter on a year-on-year basis.
«A series of developments points to a more resilient economy and reduced vulnerability to external shocks,» they concluded.
MBA/ADB // ADB.
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