Maputo, Sept. 15, 2026 (Lusa) - Around 3.5 million Mozambicans are facing acute food insecurity, placing the country amongst the most vulnerable in Africa, against a backdrop of armed conflict, economic pressure and growing climate threats, according to a report by the African organisation AGRA.
«Mozambique continues to face a mixed food security situation, with crisis conditions [IPC Phase 3] persisting in the conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula», states the Food Security Monitor report, released on Tuesday by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), a Nairobi-based African organisation that promotes the transformation of food systems and agricultural development on the continent.
According to the document, which contains data up to August, approximately 18% of the Mozambican population analysed is experiencing acute food insecurity, placing the country among the most vulnerable in southern Africa. Despite the support provided by remaining food stocks and the second agricultural harvest in some areas, the organisation warns that the situation is likely to deteriorate in the coming months.
«As the lean season approaches and household food reserves dwindle, some areas are expected to deteriorate into crisis conditions between October and January, driven by high prices for staple foods and reduced purchasing power,» the document warns.
In Mozambique, the situation is particularly worrying in Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, where armed violence continues to affect access to food, markets and livelihoods, exacerbating the vulnerability of displaced people.
In terms of prices, maize, the main cereal consumed in the country, recorded a monthly fall of 2% in August, benefiting from the arrival of harvests on the markets and improved availability of the product. Nevertheless, prices remain 10.7% higher than those recorded in the same period of 2025. Rice, meanwhile, recorded a monthly rise of 3.6%, reflecting localised supply pressures and costs associated with imports.
The report also highlights the weight of energy costs in the Mozambican economy, noting that the price of diesel remains 85% above the levels recorded in March – one of the sharpest rises observed in the region – with a direct impact on transport and agricultural production costs.
At regional level, Southern Africa is showing divergent trends. Whilst Zambia is benefiting from robust harvests and a food situation considered relatively stable, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe face the prospect of worsening food insecurity during the forthcoming lean season.
One of the main concerns highlighted in the report relates to the development of the El Niño phenomenon.
«A powerful El Niño phenomenon is developing in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to become one of the strongest ever recorded, significantly increasing climate risks in Africa,» the document notes.
According to the document, forecasts point to below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures across much of southern Africa during the 2026/27 agricultural season, a scenario that could jeopardise agricultural production and the incomes of rural households.
Across the continent, food insecurity remains particularly severe in countries affected by conflict. Nigeria has the highest number of people facing food crisis or worse, at 36.3 million, followed by South Sudan, with 7.8 million people affected.
In East Africa, South Sudan continues to face one of the world's most severe food crises, whilst Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda remain under pressure due to climate shocks, population displacements and rising food prices.
In West Africa, conflicts, insecurity and market disruptions continue to affect countries such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Nigeria, despite prospects of improved food supply with the arrival of new harvests.
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