Maputo, Sept. 11, 2026 (Lusa) - A technical analysis by Mozambican and international organisations estimates that food insecurity in Mozambique rose by 55% to 1.84 million people by March, driven by the conflict in the north, El Niño, and depleted food stocks.
The forecast is based on an analysis of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), coordinated by the Technical Secretariat for Food and Nutritional Security (SETSAN) and released today, which indicates a worsening of the situation compared with the current figure of 1.19 million people experiencing acute food insecurity.
During the projected period, between 1 October 2026 and 31 March 2027 – traditionally the season of food scarcity in Mozambique – around 254,000 people are expected to be in a state of food emergency (Phase 4), compared with the current 81,000, whilst 1.58 million will be in a state of Crisis (Phase 3), according to the report.
«The number of people requiring urgent intervention is expected to rise to around 1.84 million, of whom 254,000 are in Phase 4 (Emergency),» the document states.
According to the analysis, this evolution may result «from the depletion of food reserves, the impact of armed conflicts in the north of the country, as well as the expected effects of the El Niño phenomenon in the southern and central regions» of Mozambique.
«A deterioration in acute food insecurity is forecast in the districts analysed,» it adds.
The analysis covered 46 districts considered among those most affected by shocks recorded between 1 October 2025 and 30 June 2026, including floods, the effects of Cyclone Gezani, and the impacts of the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado.
Analysts note that food security initiatives will likely become more critical, particularly in districts affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula, as well as in arid and semi-arid areas of the centre and south of the country that are vulnerable to the El Niño climate phenomenon.
The analysis also notes an 89% probability of an El Niño event occurring by 1 January 2027, a scenario associated with below-average rainfall in the southern and central regions, above-normal temperatures and increased risks to agricultural production.
In addition to climate and security factors, the document highlights the impact of rising fuel prices, inflation and transport costs on households' access to food. In May, maize prices in the south of the country were between 25% and 60% above the average for the past five years, whilst rice prices were between 20% and 40% above the historical average.
The analysis also notes that annual inflation rose from 4.4% in April to 7.5% in June 2026, the highest rate since May 2023.
On the nutrition front, the report estimates that around 103,617 children aged between 6 and 59 months and 11,131 pregnant or breastfeeding people are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition over the next 12 months, requiring treatment.
According to data cited in the report, more than 27,000 people became displaced between April and June 2026 due to attacks by armed groups in Cabo Delgado, particularly in the districts of Ancuabe, Montepuez and Chiúre, a situation that continues to challenge access to markets, livelihoods and humanitarian assistance.
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