Maputo, Aug. 3, 2026 (Lusa) - A report by the FEWS NET network indicates that agricultural recovery following the floods in Mozambique earlier this year continues to require additional support in the affected areas, amid the backdrop of El Niño, which could further challenge food security.
In the report published on Sunday, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) highlights that recovery in the areas affected by the floods continues to require addressing «prolonged waterlogging», soil degradation and limited access to seeds – factors which have delayed agricultural production.
It added that these constraints have caused a delay of more than one month in planting and harvesting for the second agricultural season.
The organisation, an international early warning network for food crises funded by the US Government and responsible for monitoring and forecasting food insecurity and famine in various countries, noted that, despite some expected improvements in food security in parts of the centre and south of the country over the coming months, the situation remains vulnerable to the effects of the climatic shocks experienced this year.
The January floods affected more than 700,000 people and caused damage to around 440,000 hectares of agricultural land in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Sofala, followed by periods of drought and further episodes of heavy rainfall between February and March, which exacerbated agricultural and livestock losses.
The latest rainy season (usually from October to April) in Mozambique claimed 314 lives, affected more than 1.078 million people and damaged nearly 260,000 homes, according to a previous update from the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD). The January floods alone, the most severe in several years, left 43 people dead, 147 injured, and nine missing.
According to FEWS NET, post-flood assistance, the second agricultural season's harvests and seasonal incomes are expected to enable some areas to move from a ‘Crisis' (IPC Phase 3) situation to ‘Food Stress' (IPC Phase 2) from now on.
The report notes that this improvement will be supported by «post-flood assistance», «seasonal earnings» and a «favourable second-season harvest».
However, it warned that the improvement may be temporary, predicting that some districts in the centre and south will return to crisis conditions between October and January, when dependence on markets increases.
According to the report, «by October, household food reserves are expected to decline, increasing dependence on the market», with some districts likely to «return to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by 1 January 2027».
The report added that this scenario could be exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to last at least until January: «The El Niño phenomenon is now underway and is expected to persist at least until 1 January 2027».
FEWS NET adds that the phenomenon is expected to result in a late and below-average start to the next rainy season in southern and central Mozambique, as well as above-normal temperatures. The organisation considers that a «below-average start to the 2026/27 rainy season is the most likely scenario».
These conditions could reduce agricultural production in the 2026/27 season and limit seasonal employment opportunities for the poorest households, the report warned, noting further that above-average temperatures in southern and central Mozambique are likely to curtail agricultural activities during the coming rainy season.
FEWS NET also indicates that maize prices in the south of the country were, in May, between 25% and 60% above the five-year average, whilst rice prices were between 20% and 40% above the historical average.
Across the country, the organisation estimates that between 1.5 and 1.99 million people may require food assistance between 1 December 2026 and 1 January 2027, with southern and northern Mozambique identified as the areas of greatest concern.
PVJ/ADB // ADB.
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