Luanda, July 21, 2026 (Lusa) - The economic research department at Banco Fomento Angola (BFA) has revised down its inflation forecast for Angola, anticipating an average price rise of 10.2% this year, ending the year at 7.8%.
«The forecast for average annual inflation has been reduced from 12.6% to 10.2%, whilst the estimate for year-end inflation has fallen from 11.2% to 7.8%,» the analysts write in a commentary on the downward trend in inflation over recent months.
In the commentary, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the economists write that «should this scenario materialise, Angola could record its lowest inflation levels since the start of the current statistical series in 2015», which, they add, «also reinforces expectations that the monetary authority will continue its cycle of interest rate cuts».
BFA forecasts that the National Bank of Angola will announce «further cuts at its September and November meetings», lowering the reference rate for bank loans to around 13.5%.
«If the current trend in monthly price changes continues, year-on-year inflation could fall to around 9.1% next month, reaching a single-digit level for the first time since records began, and continuing to decline gradually throughout the year», they write, highlighting two factors as the main drivers behind the slowdown in price rises.
«Firstly, the exchange rate has remained stable since the end of 2024, significantly reducing the pass-through effects on domestic prices; and secondly, the increased availability of foreign currency has allowed for an expansion in imports of goods and services, helping to strengthen supply in the domestic market,» says the BFA.
Against a backdrop of rising domestic production, which is increasing the availability of locally produced goods, the BFA also highlights «the fact that Angola is not absorbing the recent international shocks to commodity prices, moving against the trend observed in several economies where inflationary pressures persist».
The National Bank of Angola's (BNA) forecast for inflation in Angola was also revised downwards to 8.6% at the end of 2026, whilst its forecast for economic growth was revised upwards to 3.6%, announced the Governor of the BNA, Manuel Tiago Dias, in mid-July.
«As no inflationary pressures are anticipated in the coming months, the Monetary Policy Committee [CPM] has revised its inflation forecast downwards to 8.6% at the end of 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point,» said the governor at the conclusion of the 130th Ordinary Meeting of this body, held in Malanje province.
At the CPM's previous meeting, held in May in Luanda, the Angolan central bank's forecast stood at 11.5%.
According to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), year-on-year inflation stood at 10.11% in June, down from 19.73% in the same month of the previous year, confirming the trend of slowing price growth.
Meanwhile, the forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised upwards from 3.5% to 3.6%, due to the positive impact of the non-oil sector, which is estimated to have grown by 4.32%.
In reading out the final statement, Manuel Tiago Dias noted that, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), Angola's GDP grew by 5.32% in the first quarter of 2026, «driven by the positive contribution of economic activity in the non-oil sector», which recorded a growth rate of 6.22%, whilst the oil sector contracted by 0.21%.
The monthly inflation rate stood at 0.52% in June, down from the 0.53 per cent recorded in May, reflecting the slowdown in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, «despite price adjustments of 5% for diesel, 10% for electricity tariffs and 50% for urban and suburban rail transport services».
MBA/ADB // ADB.
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