Luanda, July 21, 2026 (Lusa) - The World Bank forecasts that Angola will grow by an average of 2.7% until 2028, which is below the population growth rate of 3.1%, and argues that the launch of the Lobito Corridor is essential to ensure the «necessary and urgent» economic diversification.
«Growth is expected to remain modest in the medium term, averaging 2.7% between 2026 and 2028, driven mainly by the non-oil economy; with per capita income continuing to fall, the poverty rate is expected to remain high, with approximately 4 in 10 people remaining in poverty until 2027», states the Angola Economic Report, released on Tuesday in Luanda, which emphasises that growth in recent years «has not been sufficient to reverse 15 years of decline in per capita income».
In the document, entitled «From Transit to Transformation: The Lobito Corridor as a Driver of Economic Diversification and Regional Integration», the World Bank warns that this corridor, which connects the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia by rail to the Angolan coast at the port of Lobito, is crucial to ensuring economic diversification beyond oil, Angola's main export.
«The development of the Lobito Corridor offers a unique transformative opportunity to accelerate Angola's economic diversification through improved connectivity, reduced logistics costs and the attraction of investment outside the extractive sector and urban centres; however, realising this potential depends more on institutional reforms than on infrastructure investment,» the document states.
The report on Angola's economy, presented today by the world's largest multilateral financial institution, emphasises that «non-oil sectors, supported by ongoing structural reforms, particularly agriculture, are expected to lead economic growth, whilst oil production continues to decline» and forecasts that public debt will fall to 49.1% of GDP by 2027.
«Falling incomes, rising prices and heavy dependence on an increasingly dwindling resource underscore the urgent need for Angola to diversify its economy; Its heavy reliance on oil creates a cycle of economic instability that has hampered the development of non-oil sectors and, as a result, the country is unable to generate widespread productivity gains or sufficient fiscal resources to invest significantly in improving the lives of its people», states the World Bank.
The risk posed by these limited resources, the economists conclude, is «the perpetuation of current challenges», which include «low productivity, precarious jobs and inadequate public services», against a backdrop where, over the last decade, the proportion of young people out of school «has risen from 25% to almost 37%, and 4 in 10 children under five years of age suffer from chronic malnutrition».
«Addressing Angola's structural vulnerabilities, which include ‘dependence on oil, declining labour productivity, low human capital and institutional weaknesses, is essential to achieving inclusive and resilient growth',» say World Bank economists, noting that «priority reforms include continuing to rationalise fuel subsidies whilst providing adequate protection for low-income households, strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation, and investing in education, health and connectivity infrastructure».
They go on to conclude that «improving the business environment to stimulate private-sector development and job creation, whilst managing the global risks associated with oil prices, will determine whether Angola can make a successful transition to a diversified, competitive and inclusive economy».
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