Lisbon, July 21, 2026 (Lusa) — Portugal is among the destinations benefiting from the redistribution of tourist flows linked to the instability in the Gulf, with increases in hotel occupancy in the Algarve, Porto and the Alentejo, according to a McKinsey consultancy study.
In the study «How conflict in the Gulf is remapping global travel», the consultancy highlights «positive signs» in the Algarve, where hotel occupancy rose by 5.7 percentage points, in Porto, with a rise of 3.3 points, and in the Alentejo, with a rise of 2.7 percentage points, between March and April 2026, compared with the same period the previous year.
Among the factors considered in the study are surveys of 1,050 people, aged between 18 and 64, in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
According to McKinsey, geopolitical instability is leading travellers to reassess destinations and routes, shifting some of the demand towards alternative markets closer to their regions of origin.
Spain and Morocco also recorded positive trends in hotel occupancy, with increases of 9.9 percentage points in Tangier, 8 points in Alicante, 7.5 points in Agadir and 7.1 points in Marbella.
The consultancy firm believes that demand for travel remains resilient, despite geopolitical uncertainty, but notes greater caution among consumers, who are prioritising flexibility and tending to postpone bookings until they have greater clarity on prices, routes and safety conditions.
In a survey of Italian consumers, 74% said they intended to travel during the summer of 2026, although 63% had not yet finalised their bookings at the time of the survey.
More than half of those surveyed, 56%, indicated that their plans had been affected by the geopolitical situation, but only 3% had cancelled their trips entirely, whilst 24% were postponing a decision until there was greater clarity on developments in the international context.
Safety is also becoming an increasingly important factor in the choice of destinations, with between 60% and 70% of respondents in the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany stating that they are adjusting their travel plans for the coming months due to the situation in the Middle East.
According to the study, the perception of safety ranks among the main decision-making factors in the markets analysed, overtaking traditionally relevant criteria such as price or convenience.
The shift in tourist flows is particularly evident in the aviation sector, with the number of international passengers transiting through the Middle East's main airport hubs falling by around 5.1 million between March and April, compared with the same period in 2025.
This reduction corresponds to a drop of approximately 53%, leading airlines and passengers to make greater use of alternative routes and direct connections, according to McKinsey.
The consultancy firm emphasises that air connectivity could become even more crucial to the competitiveness of destinations, highlighting the availability of direct flights as one of the factors with the greatest influence on attracting international leisure tourists.
Geopolitical instability is also putting pressure on airlines' operating costs, due to airspace restrictions and rising fuel prices.
In an illustrative scenario analysed by McKinsey, the costs of a flight between London and Mumbai could rise by up to 63%, whilst ticket prices could increase by between 13% and 44% if the additional costs are passed on to passengers.
In markets most exposed to the conflict, the study identifies sharp declines in tourism activity and hotel revenue.
Between March and April, hotel revenue fell by 75% in Dubai – equivalent to a reduction of $1.8 billion (nearly €1.6 billion) – whilst it fell by 49% in Abu Dhabi, 43% in Qatar and 42% in Riyadh, compared with the same period last year.
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