Barcelona, Spain, July 15, 2026 (Lusa) - A new digital tool developed in Catalonia provides real-time data on the moisture content of forest vegetation across the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, enabling more accurate predictions of fire risk during heatwaves.
The platform, called ForestDrought and developed by the Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), updates the water status of forests and the amount of soil moisture on a daily basis via freely accessible maps, CREAF said in a statement today.
The map generated by the digital tool shows that, in recent months, heavy winter rainfall enabled forests to reach June with good water reserves, but heatwaves are now altering this situation due to plant transpiration.
According to ForestDrought’s estimates, the driest conditions in recent weeks have been recorded in Extremadura, western Andalusia and Castile-La Mancha.
“When plants have less than 100% moisture, this is indicative of water stress, and if it falls below 80%, we need to be on alert, because it means the vegetation is very dry and can catch fire more easily,” said Miquel de Cáceres, a researcher at CREAF.
In addition to soil and plant dryness, it is possible to visualise other critical indicators for fire prevention, such as the potential for fire to spread through tree canopies, the likelihood of scrub ignition and the moisture content of dead vegetation.
“We want this tool to be useful for predicting more reliably when and where living vegetation is in a critical condition and may pose a fire risk,” said Víctor Granda, a data scientist on the team.
To produce these daily simulations, the tool integrates meteorological data from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the Catalan Meteorological Service (SMC), MeteoGalicia and the Andalusian Agroclimatic Information Network (RIA).
This information is cross-referenced with data on soil type, terrain and forest structure, sourced from the National Forest Inventory, the Forest Map of Spain and LiDAR maps.
The scientific basis for the platform stems from a study published in the journal *New Phytologist* and led by CREAF, which, for the first time, incorporates the moisture content of living vegetation into fire risk models, going beyond traditional indices that only assessed the dryness of dead matter.
The research shows that trees are more resistant to drought because they have deep roots and close their pores to retain water, whilst undergrowth shrubs dry out much more quickly, which explains why two neighbouring woodlands with the same climate can present completely different fire risks.
The Portuguese environmental organisation Zero stated that 2025 was “the fourth-worst year in terms of area burnt since 2001” in Portugal, with “twice the area burnt in 2024 and more fires than in the previous year”.
The same organisation highlighted that rural fires in 2025 increased the area burnt to 98 per cent of the total projected by 2030 under the National Action Programme (PNA) drawn up by the authorities.
NCM/ADB // ADB.
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