Maputo, July 2, 2026 (Lusa) - Mozambican analysts on Thursday warned of a possible rise in insecurity and a worsening of unemployment rates following the return of more nationals who have been victims of xenophobia in South Africa, criticising the government’s “lax” attitude towards the attacks.
João Feijó, a researcher at the Rural Environment Observatory (OMR), a Mozambican non-governmental organisation, told Lusa that the wave of xenophobic attacks will have “enormous consequences” for Mozambique, leading to rising unemployment and difficulties in supplying domestic markets.
“The government will face greater pressure and increased insecurity on the streets; the whole of society will face insecurity on the streets linked to this return,” said the analyst.
According to the researcher, as a result of the xenophobic attacks, Mozambican traders who source goods from that country will be afraid to cross the border for this purpose. He also predicts that nationals returning to the country will congregate in transport hubs due to the lack of facilities to return to their home regions, creating a sense of insecurity amongst local residents.
In this regard, Feijó believes that, in addition to rising unemployment – particularly in the south of the country – political tension will increase, with citizens voicing concrete concerns about job opportunities. The analyst also foresees a rise in crime, specifically car theft in Mozambique, which, he said, is a practice already associated with illegal Mozambicans in South Africa.
“This [xenophobia] will have an impact in Ressano Garcia, where there are thousands of young people who make a living on the border by smuggling people across illegally, and this crackdown on immigration will result in a lack of opportunities for those young people, who will then turn to more violent activities, such as theft,” he warned.
With regard to trade, João Feijó said that there will be a fear of crossing the border, with lorries bearing South African number plates entering the country becoming targets for looting, and with the Mozambican upper-middle class cutting back on tourism and the use of healthcare services in that country.
“In terms of access to goods, what may happen is that there will be retaliation against vehicles with South African number plates crossing over to this side. There are many lorries passing through and this risk exists; the governments of both countries should take effective public action on this matter, with agreements between the two countries to address this issue of migration,” he said.
South African anti-immigration protesters issued an ultimatum, setting 30 June (Tuesday) as the deadline for all foreigners to leave the country, and the South African government has in recent days announced restrictions on migration policies and a strengthening of security measures.
Mozambican journalist Fernando Lima, meanwhile, believes that the government needs to take a “firm stance”, criticising the government’s lack of concrete action in the face of incidents of violence against Mozambican nationals.
“We are seeing that the South African leadership is more or less turning a blind eye to the issue of xenophobia, so we have to take political action and, as far as I can see, the government of Mozambique has been lax on this issue,” said the analyst.
In the journalist’s view, the government is also “turning a blind eye” to illegal immigration, calling for the legalisation of Mozambicans in South Africa, including the creation of policies to attract South African investment in the agricultural sector, which will create jobs in Mozambique.
“Many of these Mozambicans – even those who are being transported by bus to Inhambane and Gaza – will, using their own resources, catch another bus from their villages to the Ressano Garcia border, and at the next opportunity they will be climbing over the fence to go and work illegally in South Africa again; this is what happens every month,” pointed out Lima.
Analyst and sociologist Jaibo Mucufo also said that the xenophobic attacks are “sad and chaotic” for Mozambicans, highlighting the social and economic consequences of the mass return.
“In economic terms, we are not prepared to welcome these people or to integrate them into the unofficial economy, whereas there they have a better chance of being absorbed into the official economy as well. We have become complacent, as a government and as a state, and the return of these people is putting pressure on basic services, which are already fragile,” said the sociologist.
The academic also warned of the possibility of an increase in theft: “Most will return to South Africa, but until that happens we may face these problems, with many resorting to crime to survive. Another problem is that we are a welcoming country and some migrants from Malawi and Zimbabwe will not return to their home countries, so we run the risk of having more undocumented migrants who do not contribute to the economy,” he concluded.
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