Luanda, June 18, 2026 (Lusa) — The former Portuguese economy minister, António Costa Silva, said on Thursday in Luanda that the US-Iran agreement is “fragile”, with crucial issues still to be negotiated; he warned of “erratic” American and Iranian leadership and criticised Europe’s passive role.

Costa Silva was speaking to Lusa in Luanda, on the sidelines of the presentation of Deloitte’s “Banca em Análise” study, at a time when Washington and Tehran have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) establishing a ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and providing for negotiations on a final agreement within the next 60 days.

“It is clear that the agreement is always a relief, but the agreement is nothing more than an MoU — the crucial issues must be negotiated over the next 60 days,” he said, adding that “the focus of the agreement, as the US President has explained, is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”.

For the former minister, this is precisely the weakest point of the agreement, noting that the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil passes, was open on the day the United States and Israel launched their attack on Iran.

“We have returned to a sort of square one, which calls into question why this war was waged and what its objectives were,” he asked, highlighting the “dire situation for the global economy” caused by the conflict.

The MoU stipulates that Iran must take measures to ensure the resumption of merchant shipping through the strait within 30 days, but a return to normality is not expected to be immediate, due to damage to energy infrastructure during the war.

The author of the Strategic Vision for Portugal’s Economic Recovery Plan 2020–2030, which served as the basis for the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), also highlighted a contradiction in the conflict's outcome.

“Essentially, the war was intended to prevent Iran from acquiring a weapon of mass destruction, yet it has ended up providing Iran with another weapon of mass destruction,” he stated, referring to the ability to strangle traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a capability that Tehran had never utilised until the start of the conflict, but which the war has shown can be “lethal for the global economy”.

Costa Silva also warned of the growing rift in the Middle East, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia taking divergent positions, and of the widespread fear that Iran might once again resort to blocking the strait.

“We have two erratic leaderships, the American and the Iranian, which are becoming increasingly radical, with infighting within the regime, and all of this seems very fragile,” he emphasised, acknowledging that the markets will “breathe a sigh of relief” in the immediate term, but that the situation requires constant monitoring.

The former minister also directed criticism at Europe, whose leadership is likewise “unfortunately very erratic” and “reactive”.

“Europe reacts to events; it is never a driving force; it is always waiting for the United States to make a move, and I think that is a strategic mistake,” he argued, at a time when the struggle between the world’s major powers makes it crucial for the European Union to forge alliances with various parts of the world.

“The more alliances there are with the European Union, the less likely it is that these militaristic adventures will take place,” he argued.

In his view, US diplomacy “practically does not exist”. The US negotiating team, he said, is made up of “property developers with little understanding of geopolitical issues”, which is why these agreements are “always very fragile”.

He therefore called on the European Union, which possesses “a strong diplomatic apparatus”, to be “much more proactive and less reactive in international affairs”.

In his speech, the professor from the Instituto Superior Técnico also criticised the “predatory policy of the world’s major powers”, lamenting that the world is returning to 19th-century imperialism, and highlighted the decline in international trade as one of the most negative aspects of this regression.

RCR/ADB // ADB.

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