Maputo, June 16, 2026 (Lusa) - A study by the Israeli Institute for Counter-Terrorism has concluded that the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado is part of a wider trend of expansion by jihadist groups in Africa, describing the security situation on the continent as the worst it has ever been.
The study by the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), an independent academic centre based at Reichman University in Israel, states that “radical Islamic organisations are at their peak”, operating through networks affiliated with Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda, with a presence in various African regions.
“The security situation, the reality and its local and regional implications on the African continent are worse than they have ever been,” reads the study, authored by researcher David Doukhan, a specialist in international terrorism, who identifies Mozambique as one of the five main theatres of operation for these groups, and emphasises that the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, which began in 2017, remains active and is expanding.
The Great Lakes region in Central Africa, the Horn of Africa, the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel are the other regions highlighted on the continent by the document, which also indicates that the group associated with Islamic State in Mozambique operates “mainly” in the province of Cabo Delgado.
In 2025, there was an expansion into the neighbouring province of Niassa – in April and May 2025, with attacks also in September in Nampula – highlighting a territorial evolution of the threat.
The report frames this situation within a broader phenomenon, noting that jihadist groups in Africa operate in “uncontrolled rural areas, border zones and areas with a weak state presence”, considered conducive to their expansion.
It adds that the evolution of the insurgency in Mozambique must be analysed in conjunction with other hotspots on the continent, in a context where there is “a vast network of Islamic State affiliates”, stretching from West to Central and East Africa.
The analysis also warns that these groups do not operate in isolation, but are frequently linked to illicit networks involving “weapons, drugs, people and minerals”, a factor that strengthens their operational and financial capacity.
The report states that these movements exhibit characteristics that go beyond traditional insurgency, exercising territorial control and operating across national borders, in a dynamic that “threatens the stability of African governments”.
In the case of Mozambique, the document also highlights the strategic risk associated with the Cabo Delgado region, where significant energy resources are concentrated, giving the conflict an added economic and geopolitical dimension.
“The phenomenon transcends national borders,” warns the study, pointing to a growing interconnection between different theatres of conflict and the strengthening of a transnational threat on the African continent.
The analysis concludes that, without a coordinated response combining security, governance and territorial control, the expansion of jihadist groups — including in northern Mozambique — is likely to continue in the coming years.
Almost 20,000 people, half of them children, fled terrorist attacks in the region of Ancuabe last month, according to a report by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) released in early June.
On 7 May, figures associated with the extremist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for attacks in Cabo Delgado, including the destruction of a church, a school, ‘Christian’ shops and more than 200 homes in the Ancuabe region.
The organisation specialising in Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) recorded eight violent incidents in the last two weeks of May, six involving Islamic State extremists, which resulted in eight deaths, bringing the total number of deaths since 2017 to 6,624.
According to ACLED’s latest report, covering data from 18 to 31 May, of the 2,397 violent incidents recorded since October 2017, at least 2,214 involved people associated with Islamic State Mozambique.
PVJ/AYLS // AYLS
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