Brussels, May 21, 2026 (Lusa) – The European Commission has highlighted Portugal’s “very good economic performance”, according to the spring economic forecasts released on Thursday, whilst acknowledging that a deficit is expected this year and next, depending on “the measures” adopted by the government.
“Overall, I would say that Portugal’s economic performance is very good. Growth rates for both this year and next are forecast to be above the EU – 1.7% GDP growth this year and 1.8% next year”, said European Commissioner for the Economy, Valdis Dombrovskis, speaking in an interview with a group of European journalists in Brussels, including Lusa.
Furthermore, "unemployment will continue to fall gradually, and so on, so overall, a good performance," he added, in this interview on the day the institution presents its first economic forecasts since the start of the war in Iran.
For his part, "in terms of fiscal policy, our forecast points to small deficits of 0.1% of GDP this year and 0.4% of GDP next year," he noted.
Nevertheless, Valdis Dombrovskis added: “We do not rule out the possibility of a better outcome, because, as you know, budgets are not always fully implemented in countries and, therefore, for 2027 it will obviously depend on the type of policy measures Portugal adopts and the direction it takes.”
The European Commission has revised downwards its forecasts for the growth of the Portuguese economy to 1.7% this year and 1.8% in 2027, notably due to the effects of the winter storms and the conflict in Iran, according to the projections released today.
These forecasts are more pessimistic than those of the government, which has also revised its estimates for this year to 2% growth, according to the 2026 Annual Progress Report submitted to Brussels in April.
At the same time, the European Commission is more pessimistic than the government and anticipates that Portugal’s budget balance will shift from a surplus to a deficit in 2026, amounting to 0.1% of GDP, due to the impact of support measures following the storms.
According to the spring economic forecasts released today, Brussels forecasts a deficit of 0.1% of GDP in 2026 and 0.4% of GDP in 2027, assuming a continuation of current policies, whilst the government projects a balanced budget this year.
ANE/RYOL // AYLS
Lusa
