Lisbon, May 21, 2026 (Lusa) - Inflation in Portugal is expected to rise to 3% in 2026, driven by energy price rises, before slowing to 2.3% in 2027, according to the spring economic forecasts the European Commission published on Thursday.

Inflation accelerated from 2.2% in 2025 to 2.7% in March 2026 due to a sharp rise in international energy prices, the EU executive said.

Although this was mainly limited to fuel prices, "wholesale electricity prices remained comparatively low in Portugal, benefiting from high water reserves and a high share of renewable energy in national energy production".

Headline inflation, measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices, which allows for cross-country comparisons, is expected to “peak in 2026 Q2 and to decline gradually thereafter, as the sharp energy price rise is expected to have only a moderate and lagged effect on energy-intensive goods and services”, the European Commission noted.

Forecasts point to inflation of 3% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, whilst core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is expected to rise at a slower pace, to 2.4% in 2026 and 2027.

MES/MYAL // AYLS

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