Lisbon, April 19, 2026 (Lusa) - IAG’s withdrawal has reduced the privatisation of Portugal's flag carrier, TAP, to a contest between Air France-KLM and Lufthansa, but experts consulted by Lusa are divided: the Franco-Dutch group appears to better serve the Portuguese strategy, whilst the German carrier offers greater financial clout.
The government wants to sell up to 49.9% of the company's capital. This includes 44.9% for a major investor and 5% for employees. Price is not the only factor, as the industrial plan, connectivity and the buyer's financial capacity also matter.
Air France-KLM and Lufthansa reached the final stage after IAG, which owns Iberia and British Airways, withdrew.
Air France-KLM's strongest arguments involve Lisbon's role in its future network, preserving TAP's Atlantic focus.
"Lisbon is not redundant, it is complementary," says Maria Baltazar, a professor at ISEC (Higher Institute of Education and Sciences) Lisbon. She says the Portuguese hub – a flight distribution platform – serves as a gateway to the South Atlantic, can grow "without destroying existing value."
She says the difference between the candidates is a choice about "the role Portugal wants TAP to play in future global aviation."
Aviation financial analyst Nuno Esteves says Air France-KLM "stands out for integration potential and complementary network on the Europe-South America axis." He says the link with Brazil's GOL strengthens TAP's presence in a market where it leads.
He adds that the proposal to position Lisbon as the group’s third hub, alongside Paris (Charles de Gaulle) and Amsterdam (Schiphol), reinforces TAP's centrality on the Atlantic axis.
The analyst says the main weakness remains financial, with a self-sufficiency ratio of only 6%, well below the German group’s 24%. He says this could create uncertainty in executing an ambitious industrial plan and limit its ability to present a competitive proposal.
Rui Quadros, a former manager at Iberia, PGA (Portugália Airlines) and SATA (Azores Airlines), prefers Lufthansa for value creation. "It seems better positioned," he says, noting the German group’s history of integrating airlines, efficiency gains, financial discipline.
He acknowledges that "Air France-KLM might align more with the Portuguese state's interests." He says the group operates with state presence and suits political interests.
The French state owns about 28%, while the Dutch state owns about 9.1% of Air France-KLM.
This division defines the experts' analysis. "Lufthansa offers greater execution security and immediate impact on maintenance and engineering, while Air France-KLM presents greater transformational potential," Esteves says. He says the latter combines SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) with repositioning Lisbon as the group's structural hub.
Lufthansa Technik announced an investment in Portugal to build an engine and aircraft component repair unit in Santa Maria da Feira (in the Porto region).
Numbers favour Lufthansa financially. Data provided to Lusa by Nuno Esteves show the German group had total liquidity of nearly €10.7 billion in 2025, compared to €9.4 billion for Air France-KLM. He says the German group also benefits from a more balanced risk profile.
On a political and strategic level, the advantage shifts to Air France-KLM. Experts say the group is more likely to preserve Lisbon as an Atlantic platform and presents a lower threat of diluting TAP into a centralised network.
Maria Baltazar notes two paths: "A flexible integration model, where TAP maintains its own identity and strategic function. Or a more structured model, where the company is integrated into an efficient system, but with less autonomy."
She notes Lufthansa might face more scrutiny in Brussels. This could lead to remedies like yielding slots (assigned times for takeoffs or landings), route commitments, opening to new operators. Rui Quadros acknowledges the German group might face "slightly higher challenges" due to its growing weight in the European market after buying Italy’s ITA Airways.
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