Lisbon, April 14, 2026 (Lusa) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth estimate for the Portuguese economy on Tuesday from 2.1% to 1.9% for this year.

This projection represents a 0.2 percentage-point downward revision from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) estimate last October. The figure also falls short of the government's forecast of 2.3% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for this year, as inscribed in the 2026 State Budget.

The IMF now predicts a 1.8% growth rate for Portugal in 2027, according to the WEO update released on Tuesday by the institution.

The report highlights that the institution would have revised forecasts upwards were it not for the conflict in the Middle East. Instead, the situation led to a cut in global growth projections.

Global growth should reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 under the baseline scenario. 

These estimates suggest a "slower [pace] than the recent rate of about 3.4% in 2024-2025," with growth expected to stabilise at this level in the medium term.

Regarding the Eurozone, the institution anticipates economic growth will decrease from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.

The IMF lowered the forecast by 0.2 percentage points for each year. Better-than-expected growth at the end of 2025 gave way to the "negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East over time," the institution said.

MES/RYOL // ADB.

Lusa