Lisbon, April 6, 2026 (Lusa) — Rising instability in the Middle East could allow Portugal to capture approximately €500 million in tourism revenue from the German market, according to an analysis by the Porto-based IPDT tourism consultancy.
Global tourism is entering a new phase where safety is a decisive factor for travel rather than a mere assumption, information released on Monday shows.
Instability in the Middle East, a major hub for intercontinental travel, is causing structural changes in global tourism transport, impacting operating costs, flight paths, and demand patterns.
Portugal emerges as a competitive destination in this context due to its perceived safety.
IPDT highlighted the German market as particularly relevant, noting that about 3 million German tourists chose Middle Eastern countries for stays longer than five nights in 2024, with most visiting Egypt.
Projections show that if Portugal captures 15% of this flow, it could see an increase of about 300,000 guests. This would result in 2.4 million more overnight stays and estimated additional revenue of €500 million.
"The future of Portugal’s tourism depends on our ability to anticipate, not just react," IPDT head, Jorge Costa said in the analysis. He added that as travel increasingly involves risk assessment, the most reliable destinations will stand out.
The analysis indicated that rising costs and travel complexity will limit long-haul trips more than safety concerns, even as the Asian market recovers after the pandemic.
Furthermore, short-haul tourism should strengthen, with people in Spain and France valuing Portugal as a safe destination with competitive value for money.
However, IPDT stressed that reaching this potential depends on increasing air connectivity, efficient slot management, and using Porto airport as a strategic hub.
The institute also said Portugal must reduce tourism pressure in Lisbon and the Algarve by promoting other regions such as the interior and the centre.
The consultants warned that the main risk is not a lack of demand, but the ability to manage it to avoid overloading infrastructure and natural resources such as water and energy.
According to the IPDT, success will require policies that encourage demand to spread across the country and attract higher-value segments, consolidating Portugal as a safe destination during international uncertainty.
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