London, Mar. 6, 2026 (Lusa) - Angola is among the African economies that have benefited most from the US and Israeli war against Iran, driven by rising oil prices and improved debt-financing conditions.
“If oil remains at around $85 per barrel, Angola, Nigeria, and Ghana will see their current account balances improve, while the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, and Kenya will be among the most affected,” according to Bloomberg Economics analyst Yvonne Mhango, who nevertheless warns of other negative effects.
“For most African economies, higher oil prices mean weaker currencies and renewed pressure on inflation, which could bring interest rate hikes back into discussion,” she added.
In the case of Angola, the current account balance of this Portuguese-speaking African country could benefit by up to 3.3% of GDP, according to the analyst's report, which states that oil-producing countries, led by Nigeria, benefit not only from higher crude oil prices but also from fuel exports.
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote acknowledged this week the possibility of sending more products from his 650,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery to Europe if the price is right, Bloomberg reports.
The price of Brent crude oil on international markets has risen by almost 14% since Monday to $83, but analysts who have been discussing the consequences of this increase on African oil-producing economies point out that the impact is, for now, short-term and have not yet revised their forecasts for the end of the year.
In the financial markets, the gain is immediate, as the interest rates demanded by investors to trade public debt on the secondary market are improving for the second consecutive day.
The difference in interest rates between African dollar-denominated bonds and US Treasury bonds narrowed by about seven basis points to 339, according to the JPMorgan index, which includes Angola's Eurobonds, which led the gains, falling 4 basis points to 10.56%.
Even before the attack on Iran, African countries were already benefiting from improved financial conditions, taking advantage of lower interest rates to increase debt issuance in the first two months of the year to nearly $6 billion (about €5 billion), the highest since 2013.
“Investors reacted positively to fiscal reforms in countries such as Nigeria and South Africa, credit rating agencies improved ratings” in countries such as the Ivory Coast, and Kenya and Egypt made agreements with the International Monetary Fund, lending credibility to the internal reform agenda, Bloomberg also points out.
The scenario now, however, is one of suspension, as governments in the region will have to wait at least two or three weeks to regain access to international capital markets, Bloomberg concludes, citing the example of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the continent's largest copper producer, which planned to issue $750 million (€647 million) in April but postponed the initiative.
On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched a military attack against Iran, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader since 1989, during the offensive.
The Iranian Leadership Council is currently in charge of the country.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and launched retaliatory attacks against targets in Israel, US bases, and other infrastructure in countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Jordan, Oman, and Iraq.
Incidents involving Iranian projectiles were also reported in Cyprus and Turkey.
Since the beginning of the conflict, more than 1,000 people have been killed, most of them Iranians.
MBA/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
