Lusa - Business News - Mozambique: Gas to improve economy after 2028, tough challenges until then - S&P

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Lusa - Business News - Mozambique: Gas to improve economy after 2028, tough challenges until then - S&P

London, April,22,2024(Lusa)- The financial rating agency Standard & Poor's said on Monday that Mozambique would see significant gains from the gas projects from 2028 onwards, but until then, it would face major challenges, including a sharp increase in debt repayments.
"Mozambique's economy will see significant gains after the major gas projects begin in 2028, but until then the government will face major political challenges," write the analysts from the financial rating agency S&P in the note accompanying the maintenance of the rating at CCC+.
In its analysis of this economy, S&P said that "although economic growth was relatively high in 2022 and 2023, this did not translate into an improvement in public finances" and the country continues to have "high levels of poverty and is underdeveloped outside the major cities, such as Maputo, which leads to poor socio-economic conditions and puts permanent pressure on finances".
S&P estimates that Mozambique will grow by an average of 5.5% between this year and 2027, which is equivalent to a per capita growth of 2.5%, but warns that the figure is misleading.
"A large part of the growth is based on the extractive sector and the construction of Area 1 of TotalEnergies' gas project in the north of the country; last year, the economy grew by 5%, but non-gas GDP was only 2.2%, excluding gas production, mostly from ENI's Coral Sul platform," points out S&P.
It warned that "this growth dynamic is likely to continue, which means that socio-economic conditions and private consumption are unlikely to improve materially and taxes are likely to rise significantly".
In its analysis of the fundamental elements of the Mozambican economy, S&P emphasised that the government's capacity to reduce civil service spending and to guide spending "is limited", and that popular reaction to the reforms "has increased and will continue to weigh on the government's capacity to reduce spending substantially".
In addition, Mozambique is facing an increase in the cost of external debt, following the agreement reached with investors holding government bonds at the end of the last decade.
"The cost of servicing the external commercial debt, which was historically low, has increased; the government has already started paying the coupon on the Eurobond maturing in 2031, which was previously 5%, equivalent to $47 million (€44.1 million) a year, and has increased to 9%, or $81 million (€76 million, from 2023 to 2028, increasing to $225 million (€211 million) a year between 2028 and 2031.
Public debt, one of the indicators most followed by investors to gauge a country's ability to bear the cost of debt, is expected to slow down to 73.9% of GDP in 2027, from 79.2% last year.
However, S&P warned, this is mainly due to improvements in nominal GDP and hides underlying vulnerabilities, namely the large use of local bonds and central bank financing since 2019, in a context where total domestic debt represented 25% of GDP in October last year.
S&P decided on Friday to keep Mozambique's rating at CCC+, arguing that the good prospects for gas exports from 2028 onwards are cancelled out by the current high financial risks.
"The long-term fiscal and economic outlook is positive, provided the gas megaprojects begin to provide support from 2028, but the risks of a potential 'problematic' debt swap or further delays in debt payments remain high if there is no abrupt fiscal adjustment," the S&P analysts wrote.
MBA/ADB // ADB.
Lusa

Agency : LUSA
Date : 2024-04-23 11:21:00

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