Italy's GDP was up 0.4% in the second quarter of this tear while inflation fell back to 2.5% in July, retail group Confcommercio said Friday.
    The geopolitical scenario, after a brief period of respite, has seen renewed tensions in the Middle East, making forecasts for the Italian economy "slightly more uncertain and complex," "still experiencing undeniable signs of liveliness overall," Confcommercio stated in its latest report, estimating a second quarter of further growth of 0.4%, with a 1.2% increase compared to the same period in 2025.
    The growth achieved to date allows us to look "with some optimism" toward the results of 2026, consolidating the possibility of a GDP growth rate of close to 1% for the entire year, the association states, adding that "any slowdown in economic activity will especially impact 2027, the year in which the direct effects of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan will also end." Consumption remained positive in June, strengthening the recovery phase that began at the end of last year, with a 1.8% increase compared to the same month in 2025.
    The improving trend in household purchases was also broadly widespread in the last month, with marked signs of recovery in the automotive and household appliances sectors.
    Demand for services, especially those related to leisure, also continues to grow steadily, thanks in part to the ongoing boost from tourism.
    Supporting the picture of substantially stable demand, Confcommercio estimates, is the partial decline in inflation, with consumer prices decreasing by 0.1% in July compared to June, and a significant decline in the year-on-year inflation rate to 2.5% (from the 3% confirmed yesterday by Istat for June).
    photo: Confcommercio President Carlo Sangalli
   

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