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Lusa - Business News - Portugal: Economists estimate GDP as growing 0.5% in Q1, for 1.7% YoY rate




Lisbon, May 14, 2019 (Lusa) – Portugal’s economy grew by an estimated 0.5% in the first quarter, slightly above the 0.4% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018, for a year-on-year rate of 1.7%, according to economists polled by Lusa.
The National Statistics Institute (INE) is on Wednesday to release its flash estimate for the quarterly national accounts, including growth in gross domestic product.
Economists questioned by Lusa on average estimate that GDP for the first three months of the year was 0.5% larger than for the final three months of last year, when it was 0.4% larger than in the preceding quarter.
In year-on-year terms, the estimates average at a rate of 1.7%, in line with the rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The most optimistic forecasts are from the Portuguese economic studies centre (NECEP) at Lisbon’s Catholic University, which estimates GDP as having accelerated in the first quarter, for a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year one of 1.9%.
Santander also sees GDP as having swelled 0.6% in the first quarter, for a year-on-year change of 1.9%.
"During 2019, domestic demand should boost growth by partially compensating for any external shocks that could affect the momentum of exports," the bank’s analysts said in a note in April that contained its estimates for the economy in the first quarter.
Montepio, meanwhile, estimates that GDP swelled by between 0.4% and 0.6% in the quarter and by 1.8% on a year earlier.
BPI, for its part, estimates 0.5% and 1.7% increases respectively, while BBVA offers 0.3% - below the increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2018 - and 1.5% for the year.
The most modest estimate of GDP is that of Infinox, which sees a 0.2% quarterly and a 1.5% yearly rate.
"Budgetary policies aimed at increasing economic growth through private consumption are beginning to show some ‘wear’, so it is anticipated that economic expansion will be made at a more moderate pace," commented Lusa Pedro Amorim, an analyst at Infinox.
Portugal’s government is projecting the economy to grow by 1.9% this year, compared to the 1.7% forecast by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Portugal, and the 1.6% seen by its own independent watchdog, the Public Finance Council.

ECR/ARO // ARO.
Lusa


Agency : LUSA

Date : 2019-05-15 10:19:59







 

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